Emerging Markets: Q1 2019 Investment Outlook
Top Papers on the Outlook for Emerging Markets
After relatively dismal 2018 performance in several emerging markets, is a brighter outlook on the horizon for 2019? This list of investment outlook papers covers a wide variety of emerging market asset classes, including: China A-shares, Chinese Bonds, other emerging markets debt, EM small-cap equities, and foreign exchange.
The first group of papers examines Chinese markets in particular, and Wellington Management focuses in on Chinese innovation, delving into specific industries within the Chinese economy that are experiencing rapid growth brought on by technological advancements.
FOCUSING IN ON CHINA
China's Provincial Economies: Growing Together or Pulling Apart? (Moody's, Jan 2019)
In this paper, Moody's examines patterns of growth within China’s 31 administrative divisions, comparing demographics, productivity growth, and disparities between inland and coastal provinces.
China: Innovation superpower (Wellington, 2019)
Technological and scientific advances are changing the investment landscape in China. Wellington Management discusses specific sectors that may provide for attractive opportunities.
China's Bond Market Opening - Gentle Giant or Behemoth? (PGIM Fixed Income, Dec 2018)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States
The opening of China’s onshore bond market and its forthcoming inclusion in major indices marks a historic juncture. PGIM Fixed Income highlights these developments, as well as regulations specific to Chinese bond investors.
Sector in Brief: China A-Shares (bfinance, 2018)
Chinese equities have suffered severe amounts of collateral damage since the beginning of the trade war between the USA and China. Amidst this turmoil, active managers have delivered stronger results. This brief research note outlines key issues and considerations for investors.
EM ASSET CLASSES
EM Debt Chart Book - Q4 2018 (Eaton Vance, Jan 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada
Eaton Vance presents their 38-page quarterly chart book on emerging markets debt, with insight into both sovereign and corporate credit, as well as other economic and market data affecting EM debt markets in Q4.
Emerging-market economies: a brighter outlook for 2019? (Hermes, Jan 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
In this 2019 outlook for emerging markets, Hermes discusses the factors affecting the economic outlook for emerging markets, including cross-border lending, central bank debt, and the US dollar.
Local currency EMD - Time to reconsider an active allocation? (Capital Group, 2018)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Active allocations to emerging market debt can offer several advantages to investors, including off-benchmark exposures, increased ability to manage risks and currency exposures, and deliberate capital allocations.
Local currency EMD - Time to reconsider an active allocation? (Capital Group, 2018)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom
Active allocations to emerging market debt can offer several advantages to investors, including off-benchmark exposures, increased ability to manage risks and currency exposures, and deliberate capital allocations.
Local currency EMD - Time to reconsider an active allocation? (Capital Group, 2018)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Active allocations to emerging market debt can offer several advantages to investors, including off-benchmark exposures, increased ability to manage risks and currency exposures, and deliberate capital allocations.
Actively Benefiting from Emerging-Market Small Caps (Franklin Templeton, 2018)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region
Franklin Templeton reveals some common misconceptions about emerging market small-caps, while illuminating potential strengths of this asset class that could prove beneficial to active portfolio managers.
Multi-asset market outlook (Robeco, Jan 2019)
The 'theme of the month' for this edition of Robeco's multi-asset outlook asks whether emerging markets will make a comeback in 2019. The paper also highlights differences in GDP growth, equity performance, and valuations EM versus developed markets in 2018.
Some Rising Pressure Points in Global Debt (Moody's, Dec 2018)
Moody's discusses pressure points in global debt markets, including government debt to GDP ratios, household debt in several Asian countries, and corporate debt levels in China.
RMB Internationalisation: Where to Next? (Reserve Bank of Australia, 2018)
The internationalisation of China's renminbi currency that began in 2009 has fostered freer capital flows, along with more flexibility in exchange rates and interest rates.
Thinking strategically about Emerging Markets (UBS AM, 2018)
This UBS Asset Management chartbook illustrates changes in emerging markets from an economic, demographic, and financial market perspective, culminating in relevant implications for investors in EM assets.
FINTECH AND THE APAC ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY
FinTech 2018: The Asia Pacific Edition (CFA Institute)
This 107 page paper from CFA Institute is comprised of 3 sections - a brief overview of the branches of FinTech, applications of FinTech for financial services institutions, and specific FinTech developments within APAC countries.
Will the good times keep rolling for Asia's asset managers? (McKinsey & Company, 2018)
The asset management industry in Asia has grown at 9% annually over the past decade, enticing both local and foreign asset managers. McKinsey&Co discusses the regulatory environment and the outlook for the overall industry in Asia.
