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Macro Events that Shape Global Economies

  • ,  Senior Investment Writer |
  • 23 May 2022
  • Updated 30 May 2022
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Key Forces that Drive Economic Cycles

The economic recovery from the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic continues slowly but steadily. However, before investors can turn bullish again, a number of macro risks would have to diminish. Inflation due to huge fiscal spending, government debt, more hawkish central banks and an uncertain labour market are some of the dynamics afflicting developed economies which, should they persist, can also affect developing parts of the world. This compendium of research papers aims to provide investors with key insights into the current state of the global economy.

The Inflation Revival (BNP Paribas AM, May 2022)

Inflation – the hidden tax on consumers – has come back to the forefront of investors' thinking. An excellent way to learn how to deal with this risk is to learn from history. BNP Paribas AM offers an in-depth analysis of long-term inflationary trends.

The Big Mac on U.S. Recession Risks (MFS, Apr 2022)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The risks for a recession in the U.S. need to be put in the broader context of economic history, as well as within a framework of current developments. MFS brings these two perspectives together in discussing the probability of a U.S. recession.

Three Harbingers Point to a U.S. Recession (T. Rowe Price, Apr 2022)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Investor sentiment has become considerably more bearish recently. The war in Ukraine and the aftermath of pandemic-related policies have resulted in an increase in economic risks. But is a U.S. recession just around the corner? T. Rowe Price suggests that such an event is not imminent.

Inflation, Rate Hikes and Dividends (Dimensional Fund Advisors, Apr 2022)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Investors are looking to hedge against inflation. Some are turning to gold, others to government bonds linked to the inflation rate, while some investors look for dividends to mitigate the general rise in consumer prices. How effective are dividends in mitigating this risk?

Inflation: How did we get here and where to next? (Insight Investment, May 2022)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Inflation has risen around the globe. This paper explores the developments leading to increased living costs and potential strategies for economies and markets to deal with higher inflation going forward.

What Lies Ahead for Fiscal Spending and Monetary Policy? (BlackRock, 2022)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

The recent Covid-19 resurgence has pushed policymakers to reconsider the fiscal and monetary policy landscape. Although governments worldwide had to step in and support their economies, further spending may mean that certain key central banks have less room to manage their monetary policy agendas.

Will the U.S. Fed Achieve a Soft Landing? (Bridgewater Associates, 2022)

The interest rate policy set by the U.S. Federal Reserve has a significant impact on both the American economy and financial markets as well as other economies and markets around the world. However, this dynamic is not always clear-cut.

Emerging Economies under Long-Term U.S. Inflation (PGIM Fixed Income, Apr 2022)

Higher prices for American consumers may mean a lower demand for cheap producers in emerging economies. This paper explores how developing markets might deal with the likelihood of long-term higher U.S. inflation.

Bringing Balance Back to Capitalism: The next decade (Lombard Odier IM, 2022)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Can capitalism be reformed to work for all economies? What will it take to ensure a fairer process of allocating and accumulating capital? Lombard Odier IM tackles these issues head-on.