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Early insights into the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Coronavirus: Useful resources for investors

The coronavirus outbreak appears likely to be in its early stages and is a rapidly developing story. Savvy Investor has, over the last few days, collated papers and insights into an initial resource which we believe investors may find both informative and helpful.

These include real time statistics, investment industry opinion, academic research and policy documents from several global organizations. As the outbreak unfolds and new insights are published, we will keep adding to and updating material on the site.

virus


CORONAVIRUS - LATEST STATISTICS


John Hopkins CCSE Live Coronavirus Dashboard, Feb 2020

John Hopkins CSSE presents their Coronavirus Dashboard, updated at regular intervals throughout the day with data from several sources.

Novel Coronavirus: Situation reports, updated daily (World Health Organisation, 2020)

The WHO's daily situation report on the coronavirus outbreak.


MEDICAL PAPERS AND FORECASTS


Forecasting the Spread of the Coronavirus (The Lancet, 2020)

The potential spread of the coronavirus outbreak, both nationally and internationally, is modelled in this paper published recently in the Lancet.

Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus – Infected Pneumonia (NEJM, 2020)

In this paper, published recently in the New England Journal of Medicine, the authors analyzed early case data in an attempt to determine the epidemiological characteristics of the coronavirus outbreak.

Pandemic Risk: Background paper (World Bank, 2014)

This background paper for the World Bank investigates the economic impact of pandemic risk.

Pandemic Risk: How large are the expected losses? (NCBI, 2018)

The NCBI estimates the mortality effects and economic impact of a pandemic in the U.S.


INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS


Coronavirus: What does it mean for investors? (Manulife IM, Jan 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Strategists from Manulife IM's macroeconomic team offer their suggestions of the likely implications for global economic growth and asset markets of the coronavirus outbreak, noting that comparisons with the SARS epidemic may not be a good starting point on which to base assumptions.

Coronavirus - too early to rely on the SARS pattern (DWS AM blog, Jan 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

DWS AM offer opinions on the '2019-nCoV' outbreak, noting the similarities and differences that exist with the SARS outbreak in 2002. On their estimates and at this very early stage, they think that Chinese GDP may be reduced by over 1%.

Coronavirus and the Implications for Emerging Markets (Franklin Templeton blog, Jan 2020)

The Emerging Markets Team at Franklin Templeton considers the potential effects of the coronavirus outbreak.

Neuberger Berman CIO Weekly Perspectives: The Coronavirus and portfolio risk (02 Feb)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Neuberger Berman offers their initial thoughts on the coronavirus outbreak, though they caveat that it is still too early to make a considered judgement.

The economic cost of the coronavirus (Pictet AM blog, Jan 2020)

The Strategy Unit at Pictet AM presents their initial thoughts on the coronavirus outbreak.

Evaluating the Economic Consequences of Avian Influenza (World Bank, 2006)

This report, prepared for the World Bank in 2006, considers the economic consequences of an Avian influenza epidemic.

Coronavirus: Short-term headwinds, long-term fundamentals endure (PineBridge, Feb 2020)

Pinebridge Investments suggests using a three-stage framework to consider the implications of non-macro risks which may fall outside the usual norms.

Poll: Emerging market FX set for more pain if coronavirus worsens (Reuters, Feb 2020)

This recent FX poll, conducted by Reuters between Jan 31-Feb 4, found the vast majority of analysts and strategists expected further weakness in emerging markets (EM) currencies and assets as investors seek refuge in safer havens.

Coronavirus: What does it mean for financial markets? (John Hancock IM blog, Feb 2020)

John Hancock IM's team offers their early views on the potential impact on financial markets of the coronavirus outbreak.