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Coronavirus (COVID-19): Latest Insights

Investment Implications of the COVID-19 Outbreak

As the COVID-19 outbreak gathers momentum outside China, it seems an opportune moment to revisit the topic (see our earlier blog post) and provide readers with the very latest in institutional thinking on its impact and likely implications for earnings and economic growth. However, given the unpredictable nature of the virus, its transmission routes and infection rates, at this relatively early stage it is difficult for commentators to give definitive answers to the most pressing questions.

So far, there has yet to be a concerted move by all of the G7 economies to help limit the negative effects of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy. Italy has already implemented its own stimulus measures while the Australian central bank has cut interest rates to their lowest ever level. Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed's Powell, plus BoE governor Mark Carney and BoJ governor Kuroda all took to the airwaves to suggest to financial markets that they stood ready to implement policy action. Quite what unconventional measures or what effect marginal base rate cuts might have on global economic output is debatable, but the markets may take some solace that central banks once again, seem willing to 'do whatever it takes'.

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Eye on the Market by Michael Cembalest: COVID-19 update (JP Morgan AM, Feb 2020)

Michael Cembalest from JP Morgan AM outlines views and opinion into the COVID-19 outbreak, its potential severity and impact on global markets and economies.

John Hopkins CCSE Live Coronavirus Dashboard, Feb 2020

This dashboard from John Hopkins CCSE plots COVID-19 data on a near real-time basis and is taken from several sources.

Are investors too complacent about the coronavirus? (Aviva Investors blog, Feb 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva Investors brings together a number of its investment teams to discuss the prospects for financial markets and the global economy in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.

When the view is getting blurry, stick to main convictions (Amundi AM, Feb 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi AM offers its insights into the likely impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in which they expect a deterioration of the economic outlook during H1 2020, followed by a recovery in the latter part of the year.

Assessing damage to growth in China and beyond (NN Investment Partners, Feb 2020)

NN Investment Partners investigates the potential damage to China of the coronavirus given its critical role in most global supply chains. China accounts for 20% of global GDP.

The Coronavirus Pandemic: The end of the rally or a buying opportunity? (QMA, Feb 2020)

QMA investigates the likely repercussions for economies and markets of the recent coronavirus outbreak.

Coronavirus Casts Shadow Over Credit Outlook (S&P Global, Feb 2020)

S&P Global suggests that the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to impact some of China's indebted companies hard.

Getting a grip on the virus (NN Investment Partners, Feb 2020)

NN Investment Partners suggests that it is too early to tell how the COVID-19 outbreak will develop, or what its impact on the global economy will be. However, they believe that crucial differences exist between this outbreak and the SARS one.

Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat (Moody's Analytics, Feb 2020)

The participants in this webinar from Moody's Analytics examine how disruptive the COVID-19 outbreak has already been to China. They also note that despite trade tensions, US companies still rely heavily on China in terms of the global supply chain.

Video: Coronavirus and its implications for investors (Fidelity Intl, Feb 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Fidelity's investment professionals outline the local impact of the COVID-19 outbreak from an Asian perspective, while also discussing the nature of the virus, its transmission routes and rates. They also consider the implications for investor portfolios.

The Coronavirus, China, and the Global Economy (Vanguard blog, Feb 2020)

Vanguard economists suggest that global growth might be dented by 0.15% as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Podcast: Coronavirus Update - A view from the ground (Capital Group, Feb 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

In this podcast, Capital Group's Hong Kong-based economist Stephen Green discusses the supply chain disruptions that are already occurring, which sectors stand to lose or gain from the crisis, and how quickly 'business as usual' might be expected to return to China and global economies.

Neuberger Berman CIO Weekly Perspectives: Coronavirus - A Moving Target (01 Mar)

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Neuberger Berman's weekly insight report focuses on the COVID-19 outbreak and its implications.

Coronavirus Update: A material economic reassessment (Manulife IM, Feb 2020)

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Manulife IM's macroeconomic strategy team explains why the COVID-19 outbreak may nudge the U.S. Federal Reserve into at least one early interest rate cut (though markets are currently expecting more).

Dashboard of a Downturn: Coronavirus starts to set off some recession alarm bells (Reuters, Feb 2020)

As the global economy suffers the effects of global supply chain disruption and reduced consumer demand, Reuters provides ten interesting charts that are frequently cited as potential recession indicators.

COVID-19: Implications for business (McKinsey & Company, Feb 2020)

McKinsey & Company's article offers a perspective on the COVID-19 outbreak for business leaders, together with the potential impact and implications for companies.