Capital Market Line: Q1 2019

Medium to long-term outlooks for global asset classes

Capital Market Line analysis is an interesting way to visualize the risk/return profile of multiple asset classes at the same time and compare them to each other, as well as to the market portfolio. It's most useful for medium to long-term asset allocation decisions.  With this in mind, we've gathered a host of papers that are replete with CML-style analysis, as well as forecasts and projections for the major asset classes over a medium to long-term time horizon.  

5 TO 10 YEAR OUTLOOK

Capital market assumptions Q1 2019 - GBP (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco's long-term capital market assumptions are based on a 10-year time horizon, and are intended as a guide for strategic asset allocation decisions.

Capital Market Line: A Temporary Slowdown Till Spring, and a Steeper CML (PineBridge, Jan 2019)

PineBridge presents their five-year, forward looking view of risk and returns for major asset classes. Price declines for risk assets and improving fundamentals may point towards an increase in risk exposure.

Multi-Asset Long View (DWS AM, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

The Long View contains the long term capital market assumptions that underpin portfolios managed by DWS's Multi-Asset and Solutions Group.

2019 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations (Franklin Templeton)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton sees global stocks as having greater performance potential than global bonds, due to continued global growth. Additionally, they forecast stronger returns for emerging markets over the next 7 years.

Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes, 1Q19 (AQR Capital Management)

AQR Capital Management provides their estimates of 5-10 year expected returns for the major asset classes, as well as real estate and private equity.

Outlook: Long-term perspective on markets and economies (Capital Group, Jan 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

With the global economic expansion entering late-cycle territory, plus rising volatility and the onset of a trade war, long-term portfolio positioning can be difficult. Capital Group sheds some light on the subject.

2019 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan AM)

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions provide 10-15 year risk and return projections for multiple asset classes.

2019 Capital Market Assumptions (Voya IM)

Most forward-looking, 10-year return forecasts have been lowered, with equities projected to return 1.5% less than their average, fixed income forecasted to return in the low single digits, and cash slightly higher due to QT policies.

2018 Global Survey of Accounting Assumptions for DB Plans (Willis Towers Watson)

Although this report by Willis Towers Watson mainly explores economic assumptions, the authors show data regarding mortality assumptions, which are receiving closer attention because of increasing longevity.

Q1 2019 REPORT

Capital Markets Outlook: 1Q 2019 (AB)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

Despite Q4 being fairly volatile, recent strong economic data does not point towards a recession. As a result, the authors make the case for strong growth in 2019, while still watching for signs of deterioration in economic fundamentals.

Fundamental Equities Outlook Q1 2019 (Robeco)

In their Q1 2019 Fundamental Equities Outlook, Robeco recommends capitalizing on the Armageddon panic in Q1, and recognizes that some of the risks hanging over emerging markets may be receding.

Q1 2019 Fixed Income Outlook: More of Less and Embracing the Virtues of Lukewarm (PGIM Fixed Income, Jan. 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

This report follows a period of increased volatility and significant developments in economics, monetary policy, and the political arena. Yet the same volatility may foster near-term opportunities in fixed income markets.

Global Intelligence: 6 Investment Themes for 2019 (Manulife AM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

2019 looks set to be a year defined by change, from shifts in market dynamics to transformations in traditional alliances. Manulife suggests six themes that they believe will take center stage, each related to emerging risks and how to manage them.

Macro Quarterly, Q1 2019 (UBS Asset Management)

A quarterly examination of the macroeconomic themes that will be driving asset performance in coming quarters.

Global Economic and Asset Allocation Views, Q1 2019 (Schroders)

This quarterly report by Schroders presents their multi-asset views on asset allocation and their outlook for the global economy.

1Q19 Outlook: Putting Markets in Perspective (PIMCO)

In 2019, PIMCO expects global economies to converge lower toward a GDP growth rate of 2.75% to 3.25%.