Global Strategy Outlook

Why BREXIT may not happen…

Britain could exit from ‘Brexit’ – these articles explain why

The UK is facing an unprecedented political crisis. The June 23rd referendum vote ended with the majority of Brits voting to leave the European Union. Article 50 will need to be triggered by the new prime minister, kick-starting negotiations with the EU. But according to these recent articles on Savvy Investor, a Brexit from the EU is not at all guaranteed.

union-jack-britain-brexit

“Bracksies”: how Brexit could wind up not actually happening (Vox)
Dylan Matthews presents three scenarios which may prevent a British exit from the EU. First, the Scottish Parliament could veto Brexit. Second, the next Prime Minister could simply delay invoking Article 50 by having another referendum. Third, a general election could be called before invoking Article 50, giving the next government a mandate to cancel the referendum results.

How Britain Could Exit ‘Brexit’ (The New York Times)
David Cameron has said that the referendum decision is binding and that it is for his successor to decide when to start the process of implementing the decision. But in reality, the referendum is not legally binding. It could be ignored, but that would be political suicide and would fuel more extreme voices. A Scottish veto, though deeply unpopular, would offer a more legitimate rejection of the referendum.

Brexit? Maybe not, after all (Politico)
Tom McTague and Alex Spence discuss different paths Britain could take to avoid leaving the EU. These include a second renegotiation, invoking parliamentary sovereignty, new elections to bring in a pro-EU PM who then refuses to invoke Article 50, and using a “Scottish backdoor” to escape the referendum result.

Why Brexit Might Not Happen at All (New Yorker)
If Boris Johnson succeeds David Cameron, it is unclear when he might invoke Article 50. He wrote in the Telegraph newspaper that Britain’s departure from the EU “will not come in any great rush”. The Leave vote is purely advisory and so a final decision still rests with Parliament. If Johnson ends up in a corner and can’t guarantee British firms access to the European market, without allowing free movement of people from the continent, would he still support leaving the EU?

Hugo Dixon: Follow Merkel on Brexit – and keep cool (Reuters)
Hugo Dixon writes that many Brits are regretting their decision to vote to leave the EU now that the reality is unfolding. Voter dissatisfaction may grow when the next prime minister sets out his or her exit plan. It will become clear that many of the promises made by Boris Johnson and the Leave campaign  – crucially that it would be possible to get access to the EU’s single market whilst ending the right of EU citizens to come to Britain – are inconsistent.

 

Feedback