Markets Outlook

Braver for longer

Boom and bust? Or sideways grind?

The bull market may be in its final phase, but Fidelity International is encouraging investors to be "braver for longer". In the paper below, Fidelity describes two possible endgames for the economic cycle; the first a "parabolic boom and bust", the second a sideways consolidation phase. This paper describes how those different scenarios might play out from an investor's perspective.

Plenty of contrary views will be found in the papers listed below. The award for "best paper title", however, must go to GSAM for their Beatles-inspired offering: "The Long Unwinding Road".

Savvy Investor

Investment Outlook Q4 2017: Braver for longer (Fidelity International)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK and Europe)
This paper provides Fidelity International's outlook for global equities, bonds, and alternatives. The authors believe that the bull market is still intact but is now in its last phase.

Multi-asset markets outlook (monthly) Robeco, Oct 2017
This document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for multi-assets, such as commodities, bond and equities. The authors provide brief analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan and China. 

The Shift to Reflation: Assessing the Impact to Portfolios (PineBridge)
During the stall-speed regime, certain strategies which worked well are not likely to provide substantial risk-adjusted returns moving forward. While academics have demonstrated that asset classes tend to maintain generally consistent Sharpe ratios over long periods, these averages may not hold true under different market regimes, which can, at times, span over several cycles.

Quantitative Easing: The Long Unwinding Road (GSAM, Oct 2017)
Central banks are set to unwind the extraordinary accommodation put in place since the global financial crisis. This outlook paper takes a deep dive into the potential asset implications of the global QE retreat.

Q4 Investment Strategy: Expensive But Worth It (Lyxor, Oct 2017)
The coordinated global pace-up of activity that has been recorded to date in 2017 seems likely to extend through year-end. This quarterly strategy looks at recent macro and monetary policy happenings in developed and emerging markets.

The Coming Bear Market (Robert Shiller, Sept 2017)
Robert Shiller argues that the U.S. stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. That doesn't mean that a bear market is imminent, but it does amount to a stark warning against complacency. 

Global Update: Drying Paint or Boiling Frog? (PIMCO, Oct 2017)
PIMCO’s Global Update delivers a brief but comprehensive review of the month’s market-moving events – across countries and asset classes – and PIMCO’s thoughts on what to expect going forward. 

RBC GAM Quarterly Global Investment Outlook - Fall 2017
From RBC Global Asset Management, a quarterly analysis of global strategy issues. This is the latest in a regular series of quarterly reports. 

Q4 Economic & Market Outlook: The fundamental things (still) apply (TIAA, Oct 2017)
Global economic growth continues to improve, allowing stocks to extend their rally on higher corporate earnings growth. Expectations for Q4 are generally positive.

A Focus on Valuation Within Markets Reveals Opportunities (PineBridge, Oct 2017)
As the markets continue to normalize, strategists at PineBridge Investments find increasing conviction in opportunities to find value in smaller cap stocks globally and selected EM economies, particularly in Asia.

Global Bond Market Outlook: Uncharted Territory (Janus Henderson, Oct 2017)
In this report, Janus Henderson's Fundamental Fixed Income team provides insights on potential investment risks and opportunities, and shares our global outlook for the quarter ahead.

Multi-Asset Outlook: Tick tock till tapering? (Wellington Management, Oct 2017)
Market watchers needed a split-screen monitor in the third quarter to track North Korea, hurricanes, inflation, and various geopolitical and global markets. Going into the fourth quarter, what should they be looking out for?

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