For years now, financial markets have been dominated by the monetary policy cycle. As global liquidity reaches its peak, the credit, business and valuation cycles should grow in importance. Peculiarly, these cycles appear to be out of step with each other, making the case for careful navigation over the next 12 months.
BofAML's Transforming World Atlas - Investment themes illustrated by maps by Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Investment Themes in pictures! This document by BofAML provides some really fascinating infographics into cyclical and secular investment themes including: People (the allocation of scarce human resources); Earth (the allocation of scarce natural resources); Innovation (the disruptive role of technology); Government (the role of public policy); and Markets (the allocation of scarce financial capital).
Late-cycle investing - Outlook 2016 by CitiBank
Today’s late-cycle conditions place even greater importance on appropriate investment selection and risk management This 60-page report from Citibank covers all of the world's major regions, with special features on geopolitics, the business cycle, emerging markets, volatility and healthcare stocks.
Has China just pressed the escape button? by Fulcrum Asset Management
As dark clouds have been gathering over the Chinese economy, it is apparent that the authorities may have pressed the escape button used by every other major economy since 2008: “devaluation”. Originally written in August 2015 after China's currency fell 4 per cent in just 2 days, Gavyn Davies examined China's policy options in the immediate aftermath.
2016 economic and investment outlook by Vanguard
Global growth is set to remain in its frustratingly fragile state this year. Vanguard’s non-consensus viewpoint is that the growth of the global economy is gradually converging toward an unlevered, more balanced equilibrium. This structural convergence is not yet complete, given the need for debt de-leveraging in China and other emerging markets.
JP Morgan Quarterly Guide to the Markets by JP Morgan
From JP Morgan, a comprehensive, 70-page quarterly assessment of global investment markets; the financial markets in pictures, overflowing with tables and charts. This is the latest in a regular series of quarterly reports.
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