Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age
This detailed report (106 page) presents Robeco's forecasts for 5-year expected returns across all major asset classes. Strategists at the company aim not to give an accurate account of what will happen between now and 2022. However, they present the broader trends and averages. The report covers specific topics such as the future of the Eurozone, the origin of returns, secular stagnation, passification, and volatility.
Do bonds diversify equity risk? by Wellington Management
This Wellington Management paper argues that the case for government bonds as equity risk diversifiers has shrunk significantly in recent years. Although bond yields have been rising, they remain very low by historical standards. This implies that the expected return hurdle for investing in alternative hedges to equity risk is lower than in the past.
JP Morgan Quarterly Guide to the Markets, Q4 2017 by JP Morgan Asset Management
The JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets" is a bumper 80-page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead. The accompanying "quarterly perspectives" report is a "guide to the guide".
Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends by Bank for International Settlements
This paper from Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan explores the impact of global demographic shifts on the global economy, inflation, and inequality. It asks whether we are in a 'debt overhang' trap enforced by persistently low rates. It recommends policy changes from debt to equity finance.
Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2017 by Credit Suisse
This excellent 59-page document from Credit Suisse explores a range of investment themes (particularly recent monetary policy) within the context of long-run global asset returns. The report contains data for 26 countries and regions going back to 1900. It's a detailed, must read report.
The Shift to Reflation: Assessing the Impact to Portfolios by PineBridge Investments
This paper by PineBridge Investments argues that during the "stall-speed" monetary regime, what worked for asset allocation strategies is unlikely to do the same moving forward. The authors present, identify and explore different types of market regimes which span different cycles.
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