Global Investment Outlook - August 2019
Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2019
The papers below contain some thought-provoking insights, exploring the investment outlook for the next month, quarter, year and beyond. There are two significant issues - Brexit and the US-China trade war - particularly troubling investors at the present time, each affecting the global economic outlook in a substantial manner. But there are plenty of other issues for investors to consider, as the reports below demonstrate.
What’s the outlook for China A-shares amidst a slowing Chinese economy? Is a no-deal Brexit becoming more likely? Is there any point to investing in negative yielding debt? What new macro themes are likely to develop over the next quarter? Let’s find out…
U.S. Munis Outlook: The Downside of Low Rates and Fed Easing (Eaton Vance, Jul 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada
What is the potential downside to cutting the U.S. fed funds rate and caving in to pressure exerted by the political, economic, and market environment?
Value stocks, equity diversification, China: Some questions (Wellington, Aug 2019)
Wellington Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger shares his thoughts on value stocks and equity diversification internationally, also asking how China A-shares fit into an EM portfolio.
The Survivability of the Euro, Part I (Invesco)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Jacek Rostowski and Arnab Das present the second paper of a series that seeks to address pressing issues surrounding the euro, the eurozone, and the European Union.
4 keys to investing in the second half of the year (Capital Group blog, Jul 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe
How will the second half of 2019 unfold for investors? Trade disputes and Brexit are issues that have yet to be resolved, and with this backdrop, Capital Group presents 4 themes for the remainder of the year.
Fixed Income Monthly (Fidelity Intl, Aug 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe
This monthly report from Fidelity is a summary of their fixed income views over a medium-term time horizon.
Global Macro Trends: Hot Spots (KKR, Aug 2019)
In addition to providing an outlook for the broader global economy, this 21-page KKR report focuses in on China and the UK, given Brexit, ongoing trade issues, and the broader implications of these circumstances.
A view of China from the ground up (Capital Group blog, Aug 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe
Capital Group goes over the recent increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods, as well as potential Chinese currency manipulation and how these events play into a broader long-term discussion about the relationship between these two countries.
Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Aug 2019)
Eaton Vance's 40-page "Monthly Market Monitor" uses a chartbook format to provide a helpful review of economic and market data.
Staring Down the Barrel of a No-Deal Brexit (Man Group blog, Aug 2019)
UK Parliament reconvenes in early September and begins to prepare for further Brexit deliberations. What will happen next?
Global Asset Classes Q3 2019: Top-Down Quarterly Assessment (Amundi AM)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
This 30-page report by Amundi AM provides a detailed assessment of the state and outlook of key global asset classes.
Macro Monthly: Q&A on recent market developments (UBS AM, Aug 2019)
The August edition of ‘Macro Monthly’ is presented in a Q&A format, covering trade developments and what they may mean for asset allocation.
Will trade tensions reshape the world order? (Hermes IM blog, Aug 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
US protectionism will likely have some negative effects on the economy, but will it just be accelerating trends that have already been underway? What other challenges and opportunities may arise as a result?
Multi Asset Monthly: August Agony (NN IP, Aug 2019)
How much will increased uncertainty due to tariffs and ongoing US-China trade discussions bring down business confidence and corporate capex? Will additional easing be enough to avert a recession with this backdrop?
A Low Yield World (GSAM, Aug 2019)
Can investing in debt with low or negative yields still generate positive returns? This paper lays out some active strategies for global fixed income investors.
Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War (Moody's, Aug 2019)
The stakes are high for the global economy, as the tumultuous US-China trade war continues to drag on.
Emerging Markets Charts & Views, Q3 2019 (Amundi AM)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
Amundi Asset Management discusses the outlook for emerging market stocks and bonds, given present day trade war uncertainty and looser global monetary policy.
China markets: the outlook for equities and fixed income (UBS AM, Aug 2019)
UBS Asset Management weighs in on their predictions for China’s bond market and stock market in H2 2019, as the global economy begins to slow down.
Currency Update - The Chinese Renminbi (Pictet WM, Aug 2019)
Can the PBOC resist a competitive devaluation of the renminbi? What is implied by the recent fall in CNY? This paper seeks to provide some answers.