All topics

Bulls and Bears in the U.S. Equity Market

U.S. Equities: Should Investors be Bearish?

Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up around 15%.  But the Fed has just cut rates, in case a recession is around the corner.  After 10 years of strong equity market performance, some strategists are worrying that we've reached the top. Who is right – the bears or the bulls? Is a bear market looming?


Here are some of the top whitepapers on the present outlook for the U.S. equity market, the dichotomy between bears and bulls, sector-specific viewpoints, and the analysis of U.S. securities.

US equity bulls bears


FEATURED PAPERS


U.S. Equities Q2 2019: The Next Big Things (Baillie Gifford)

Baillie Gifford’s Tom Slater interviews Jeff Bezos about the opportunities of tomorrow, discussing Alexa, Amazon’s media holdings, the future of the grocery industry, cloud computing, and healthcare.

Russell 3000: Mirroring the U.S. equity market since 1984 (FTSE Russell, 2019)

Using four decades of data, this 30-page paper by FTSE Russell examines how U.S. equity markets have reflected the overall growth in the U.S. economy, particularly the shift from large industry to a sharp focus on technology and services.


SHOULD YOU BE BEARISH?


Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble (Research Affiliates, Jul 2019)

Are U.S. equities in a bubble today? Research Affiliates analyzes bubbles and anti-bubbles, providing other useful insights for investors.

A Perspective on the Current Stability of Global Equity Markets (Intech, Jul 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This 14-page chartbook-type report explains why the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor is suggesting investors approach equity markets with caution at the present time. Adopting a lower beta exposure, the report suggests, might deliver higher portfolio efficiency and reduced systematic risk.

A New Paradigm is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" (Ray Dalio, Jul 2019)

Ray Dalio, of Bridgewater Associates, discusses paradigm shifts in global equity markets and their implications for investment professionals.

Equity Outlook: It's Too Late to Get Bearish (Invesco US, Jul 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Invesco presents a 68-page chartbook on the outlook for global equity markets.

Why Corporate Profits are Overstated and What it Means for Investors (O'Shaugnessy AM, 2019)

Due to corporate capital allocation, corporate earnings may be routinely overstated. What are the implications for valuation models and for equity investors?

The Anatomy of Bear Market Drawdowns (MFS, Jul 2019)

How have specific asset classes performed during the last few drawdowns? MFS investigates this question, with an eye towards asset allocations.

Capital Markets Outlook 3Q19 (AB)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

This 40 page chartbook sets out the AB view on global markets, with a particular focus on US equities.

Share Buybacks: A Brief Investigation (Two Sigma, 2019)

The evidence points against companies using stock buybacks to prop up stock prices, despite some of the rhetoric to the contrary. The authors examine the characteristics of companies pursuing buybacks and share their findings.

Evaluating and Implementing Defensive Equity Strategies (Intech, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Intech discusses the many ways to implement defensive strategies within equity allocations.


OTHER PAPERS


The Case Against Small Caps (Enterprising Investor blog, 2019)

Nicholas Rabener explains why we may actually be better off rooting for large companies than smaller firms.

The S&P MidCap 400®: Outperformance and Potential Applications (S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2019)

S&P Dow Jones Indices looks at the ‘mid-cap premium’ from a sector perspective as well as a factor perspective in this paper about U.S. mid-cap equities.

A Case for Dividend Growth Strategies (S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2019)

Stocks with high dividends have performed well, but have also become expensive in an era of low interest rates. Will these firms face additional pressure if rates rise?

4 things you should know about tech stocks and ‘antitrust’ (BNP Paribas AM blog, Jun 2019)

Technology companies have grown rapidly in recent years alongside the digital economy, but some may face additional antitrust scrutiny from U.S. regulators in the near future.

The P/E Ratio: A User’s Manual (Epoch Investment Partners, 2019)

Epoch Investment Partners takes a look at the ways that the P/E ratio is used in corporate valuation.

Uber vs. Lyft: Who’s at the wheel? (MSCI blog, Jun 2019)

MSCI looks at the differences between the ownership models of Uber and Lyft, as well as the potential implications of these and other differences between the two companies.

Tesla's Travails: Curfew for a Corporate Teenager? (Aswath Damodaran blog, Jun 2019)

Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU presents an update to his valuation for Tesla.

Unicorns, IPOs and the Fear of Repeating the Late 1990s (Epoch, Jun 2019)

IPO volumes in 2019 are set to surpass the amounts seen in the dot-com bubble of 1999. Are the valuations today just as out of touch with fundamentals as they were back then?

related content