Probability of Conservative majority increasing, but polls remain in flux
Our UK ELECTION BAROMETER is updated daily, combining a "poll of polls of polls" with implied probabilities derived from the latest spread-betting and bookmakers’ odds.
A recent poll from Survation has the Labour vote almost level with the Conservatives, but most polls continue to show the Conservatives ahead, and over the lat 24 hours, betting odds have reflected an increasing belief in a Conservative majority, with the probability rising from 80% to 85%.
“Expected” Number of Seats (326 needed for a majority)
IG Index (June 8) – Conservative (364) Labour (207) SNP (46) Liberal (11)
Since Prime Minister May called the snap election on April 18, the opposition Labour Party has experienced impressive surge in most polls, especially in the last 2-3 weeks. Analysts have been debating what this actually means and whether it'll translate into any meaningful impact on the final result.
In an article for the BBC News website, John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, provided a helpful guide on reading the polls:
"At the last election in 2015 the Conservatives were seven points ahead of Labour in the national vote and that secured them an overall majority of 12. So, any poll that puts the Conservative lead at six points or less is suggesting that the Conservatives will be less far ahead of Labour than two years ago - and, consequently, could potentially be at risk of losing their overall majority."
IG Index spreads still project a parliamentary majority for the Conservatives at 365 seats – 39 more than the 326 needed to govern without the support of other parties.
Following the unexpected magnitude of the Conservative victory at the last general election, the British public and political commentators have learnt to be wary of polls. David Cameron’s victory in 2015 failed to forecast the scale of his victory over rival Ed Miliband, and in June 2016 most polls were expecting a victory for the Remain side in the EU Referendum.
Recent investment research covering political topics
The Savvy Research team has selected this list of recent papers, covering a variety of geopolitical topics. All of these are available to access, free of charge, upon registrations as a member of Savvy Investor:
The Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism (James Montier, GMO)
In this paper, James Montier and Philip Pilkington of GMO argue that the rise of populism has its roots in the same sources that have given rise to so-called “secular stagnation.”
Geopolitics and Investing: The Normality of the Unexpected (Pioneer Investments, March 2017)
Global geopolitical changes will be the major risk to investment in 2017. This 14-page paper by Pioneer Investments explores the relationship between geopolitics, markets and investment strategy.
Brexit - What It Means for Investment Management (CFA Institute, 2017)
This guide has been written by CFA Institute. It explores the legal and regulatory considerations following Brexit and analyses the possible outcomes.
Populism and the Threat to Globalisation (Standard Life, May 2017)
This paper by Standard Life Investments outlines the markers that have defined the latest era of globalisation and its influence on global and national income trends.
Incredible Shrinking Earth: Have we reached peak globalization? (PNC, May 2017)
In this Investment Strategy paper, the authors take a look into the history and impact of globalization and analyze current global trends, as well as review some of key 2017 calls from an earlier strategy report.
What makes politics tick? Understanding political risk in markets (Standard Life, March 2017)
In this paper, the authors outline Standard Life's analytical framework for assessing the factors that drive political risk and the potential consequences for investors.
The Populist Tide May Be Yet to Peak (Pictet WM, May 2017)
Populism could remain a feature of politics in the western world, with the resultant volatility likely to have wide-ranging implications for investors.
Populist Allocation: Populism and asset prices (LGIM blog, May 2017)
The French recently elected an establishment President. But does it mark the end of road for populism? Far from it! Lars Kreckel (Global Equity Strategist) looks at how the populism theme impacts financial markets and asset prices.
Brexit and the European financial system: mapping, markets, players and jobs (Bruegel, 2017)
This paper compares London and four major cities that together will host most of the new EU27 wholesale market. It provides a detailed picture of wholesale markets, key market players and the underlying clearing infrastructure.
1. Betfair is a peer-to-peer betting platform. The implied probability can be calculated as the reciprocal of the odds.
2. Oddschecker shows the latest odds from a wide range of online bookmarkers. The implied probability is based on the best odds available.
3. IG Index is a London-based trading platform and spread-betting firm.