Global Strategy Outlook

Global Investment Outlook Q3 2016 – The Best Papers

Q3 2016 Investment Outlook – the best white papers

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Events of the recent weeks have given economists, asset allocators and portfolio managers plenty of food for thought. A flight to quality following the UK's Brexit vote has seen low bond yields even more firmly embedded, whilst US and European monetary policy now seems to be heading in different directions. Here is our selection of some of the best research examining the investment outlook for Q3.


JP Morgan Quarterly Guide To The Markets Q3 2016
The JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets is a bumper 80 page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead. 

Global Investment Outlook Midyear 2016 (BlackRock)
Markets are divided between concern over the fallout from the UK’s EU vote and the prospect of an improving US economy. BlackRock argue for an extended period of low rates, given the downside risks to global growth.

Global Macro Trends: 2016 Mid-year Update (KKR, June 2016)
In this excellent publication, KKR argues that we remain in a difficult environment, but with significant opportunities, particularly in the areas of private credit, private equity and real assets.

Life After Brexit: Mid-year economic and market update (JP Morgan, July 2016)
Stephanie Flanders examines the outlook for global markets and economies in the post-Brexit environment.

Commercial Real Estate Outlook - Is there a storm brewing?
New research from PIMCO suggests that U.S. Commercial Real Estate values could fall by 5% over the next 12 months, driven down by stock market volatility, regulatory pressures and a drying up of overseas capital. Could this be a pattern for commercial property values around the world?

Fixed Income Focus Q3 2016 (JP Morgan)
This paper provides key findings from the Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Investment Quarterly 3Q 2016 by JP Morgan.

Monthly Investment Outlook from Bill Gross (Janus Capital, July 2016)
In his latest Investment Outlook, Bill Gross of Janus Capital examines the role of banks and the central bank in the economy, arguing that credit growth within the US economy needs to expand.

Brexit: Big Risk, Little Reward (BlackRock)
This paper provides the views of BlackRock's Investment professionals on the economic, policy, market, regulatory and financial industry implications of "Brexit".

From Brexit to Quitaly: The Expected Ramifications (Northern Trust, July 2016)
The decision by British voters to leave the EU shocked the political and investment worlds alike. In this investment strategy paper, Jim McDonald of Northern Trust examines the global implications of this historic vote.

From Brexit to Stagflation? (PIMCO)
What is the likely economic fall-out from the Brexit vote on the rest of the world? Joachim Fels of PIMCO shares his thoughts in this brief article.

Debt, Growth and Investment Returns: The Inconvenient Truth (MFS, July 2016)
High government debt ratios make it very difficult for countries around the world to loosen fiscal policy and stimulate growth. Yields will remain low for years to come and investors are encouraged to rein back their expectations, in order to avoid mispricing risk..

2016 Mid-Year Outlook: The Cycle Continues, Barring Policy Mistakes (Oppenheimer)
Oppenheimer CIO Krishna Memani details the company's outlook for risk assets. The outlook remains favorable, assuming continued policy accommodation. Oppenheimer believe that excessive Fed rate hikes could affect growth negatively while above-average valuations for most asset classes may restrict gains moving forward.

Janus Market GPS Mid-Year 2016
This excellent publication from Janus Capital presents detailed insights covering three key themes: Brexit, low/negative yields, and market volatility.

Impact of Brexit on Asset and Fund Managers (Allen & Overy, June 2016)
This paper by Allen & Overy examines the major risks and legal implications of "Brexit" for fund and asset managers. The authors analyse the possible short- and long-term impact on the sector as a whole. They discuss contingency planning, the different post-Brexit models and the difficulties associated with each one.