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Global Investment Outlook - November 2018

  • ,  Chief Executive |
  • 16 Nov 2018
  • Updated 27 Nov 2018

Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2018

McKinsey & Company defines a superstar firm as one that garners a substantially greater share of income than the firms in its peer-group and pulls even further away from those peers over time.   But which firms, sectors, or industries will differentiate themselves as standouts in the period ahead?

Thought leaders from throughout the investment industry have produced the below list of whitepapers, containing monthly and quarterly outlooks across multiple asset classes, as well as insight into specific industries.  

Nov outlook

Superstars: Leading firms, sectors, and cities (McKinsey & Company, 2018)

Do firms, sectors, and cities exhibit 'superstar effects' that set them apart from other entities? McKinsey Global Institute examines the characteristics of superstars and the implications can be drawn from these observations.

BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Dashboard (BlackRock, Oct 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Dashboard reviews the top geopolitical risks that are currently on the minds of investors, as well as their likelihood for escalation.

Global Unconstrained Fixed Income Report (eVestment)

This eVestment report examines data from 200 global unconstrained bond strategies, totalling around USD 450 billion AUM.

Medium-Term Asset Allocation Views (BNP Paribas AM, Oct 2018)

BNP Paribas Asset Management provides medium-term asset allocation recommendations for institutional investors grappling with challenges such as low yields, increased regulatory pressure, and risk/return objectives.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Nov 2018)

Eaton Vance's Monthly Market Monitor is a chartbook that reviews economic data and asset-class data on a monthly basis through informative and concise visual representations.

Lessons from 200+ years of energy evolution (Wellington Management, 2018)

Wellington Management's Multi-Asset PM Scott Elliott considers the evidence from previous energy-related transitions and draws conclusions that could shape future investment decisions.

The Alpha/Beta Allocator: 6 steps to a better portfolio (Lyxor ETF, Nov 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Lyxor ETF reviews active manager performance in Q3 with respect to equity and fixed income benchmarks, then looks forward into Q4 expectations.

Rethinking Asset Allocation (KKR, Oct 2018)

KKR strategists attempt to cut through the noise, providing asset allocation advice for multi-asset portfolio managers that takes into consideration correlation shifts and opportunities that incorporate the illiquidity premium.

Q4 2018 Outlook: Growth, but not as we know it (BlackRock)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Above-trend US growth is driving the current global expansion, but the cycle is maturing. Trade disputes and QT could spawn further bouts of volatility. With this backdrop, BlackRock provides recommendations for Q4.

Global outlook (Macquarie, Oct 2018)

This paper by Macquarie takes the temperature of the global economy, delving into a variety of themes such as: central bank monetary policy movements; the U.S. growth cycle; EM local markets, and more.

Top of Mind: Three ideas for the final quarter of 2018 (Wellington Management)

Wellington Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addresses three topics that are top of mind with investors: where we are in the cycle, recent emerging market underperformance, and lessons from the 2008 financial crisis.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 4Q2018 (Neuberger Berman)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

2018 has been an unusual year for financial markets. Neuberger Berman's Asset Allocation Committee reflects on the divergence between the US and EM markets and other facets of the global economy as they look toward Q4.

2019 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan AM)

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions supplies 10 to 15 year projections for 50 strategy and asset classes. Other themes prevalent in the global financial markets are also discussed.

Investment Traffic Lights (DWS AM blog, Nov 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

DWS presents their tactical and strategic views for financial markets, covering returns in the month of October, as well as the short-term multi-asset outlook.

Global Outlook (The Economist, Nov 2018)

This report by the Economist Intelligence Unit provides new forecasts for different economies around the world, as well as insights into exchange rates, global trade, commodity prices, and more.

Capital market assumptions Q4 2018 (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

These capital market assumptions were developed by the Invesco Global Solutions team, and are based on a long-term (10-year) horizon for asset allocation.

Barings Quarterly Review & Outlook, Oct 2018

The authors present Barings’ latest views on the trends driving global markets across fixed income, equities, alternatives and multi asset.

Investment outlook 2019 - Turbulence ahead (Robeco, Nov 2018)

Robeco's warning for investors is to expect market turbulence in 2019. With protectionism, Brexit, Italian budgetary turmoil, and other issues on the horizon, the current bull market may soon come to an end.

CML: Why a Medium Risk/Low Return Bull Market Lies Ahead (PineBridge, 2018)

PineBridge's CML looks at the two forces that will likely offset the impact of rising rates and drive equity markets forward – at least in the medium term.

Cross Asset Investment Strategy: 2019 Outlook (Amundi AM)

Amundi's 2019 Outlook discusses the late stage of the current economic cycle and the impact of an uncertain geopolitical backdrop on markets for the coming year.

Q4 2018 Investment Landscape (Verus Investments)

Verus reviews global economic activity and performance across multiple asset classes in Q3 as they look towards expectations in Q4.