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Global Investment Outlook - May 2019

Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2019

To 'sell in May and go away' is often thought an old cliché. Will markets swing?  Will fortunes sway?  Should one pay heed, this traders' play?  Investors and asset allocators may be more tempted by such seasonality strategies this year than in years past, given the broad equity rally in Q1, but then again, what might the remainder of Q2 and Q3 hold in store?

The below list of monthly and quarterly investment outlook papers surveys the perspectives of some of the top global asset managers, as they examine present-day risks, potential opportunities, the overall outlook for the global economy, and relevant implications for multi-asset investors.  

outlook May seasonality

Q2 2019 Outlook & Review (QMA)

QMA provides their outlook for Q2 2019 - slower global growth, with less likelihood of a recession. They also review the dovish monetary policy turn of central banks during Q1, as well as a strategic outlook for global asset classes during Q2.

Q2 2019 Bond Compass: The Future of Bond Trading and Technology (SPDR)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This quarter’s issue of Bond Compass contains data on bond flows from Q1 2019, updates on global inflation levels from a proprietary inflation gauge, three potential investment themes for Q2, and a panel discussion on technological changes affecting the bond market.

Q2 2019 Bond Compass: Positioning for Patience (SPDR)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

This quarter’s issue of Bond Compass contains data on bond flows from Q1 2019, updates on global inflation levels from a proprietary inflation gauge, an interview with a short-term fixed income portfolio manager, and three potential investment themes for Q2.

Quarterly Outlook, Q2 2019 (PGIM Fixed Income)

This Q2 Outlook from PGIM Fixed Income takes a sector-by-sector look at fixed income markets, examining factors that support global growth as well as other conditions that might affect Q2 performance.

Capital Market Assumptions Q2 2019 - GBP (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This paper provides long-term estimates for the behaviour of major asset classes globally. The assumptions, which are based on a 10-year investment time horizon, are intended to guide strategic asset allocations.

Q1 2019 Insights: Risk Retreats Around the World (Axioma)

Axioma reviews financial market activity in Q1 2019, and provides a risk-centric global economic outlook for Q2.

Global Macro Trends: The Uncomfortable Truth (KKR, Apr 2019)

What can yield-oriented investors due to outperform in the present day environment of low interest rates, high debt loads, and steepening fiscal deficits?

World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery (IMF, Apr 2019)

This is the full-fledged, 216-page World Economic Outlook from the IMF, complete with country-specific growth forecasts, updates on downside risks, and interesting sections on corporate power, the price of capital goods, and the spillover effects of tariffs.

Multi-Asset Market Outlook (Robeco, May 2019)

Robeco presents their multi-asset market outlook for the month of May 2019. This month's theme is that there's no need to fear yield curve inversions.

Foresight: key macro themes and market outlook (Manulife AM, Apr 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Manulife Asset Management presents their short-term (6 to 12 month) and structural (3 to 5 year) views on global markets.

Asset Allocation View (Fidelity Intl, May 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Fidelity International presents their monthly asset allocation view, their multi-asset team's viewpoints on which asset classes and markets are presenting the greatest opportunities and risks for the month of May 2019.

360 Degrees: Fixed Income Quarterly Report Q2 2019 (Hermes IM)

In this edition of 360°, the fixed income team at Hermes provides a broad-ranging quarterly outlook for a large swath of the credit spectrum, including private debt, structured securities, leveraged loans, and asset-based lending.

Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor: 1Q19 Quarterly Report, Apr 2019

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This report represents Intech's quarterly perspective on the current levels of stability within global equity markets. It is supported by five reliable indicators, each providing insight about equity market strain.

Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor: 1Q19 Quarterly Report, Apr 2019

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This report represents Intech's quarterly perspective on the current levels of stability within global equity markets. It is supported by five reliable indicators, each providing insight about equity market strain.

Macro Monthly: Spring in Europe (UBS AM, May 2019)

What's the outlook for European equities? If political issues prove to be manageable and growth continues to grind higher, there may be room for upside surprises in European equities over the coming months.

CML: Why Today’s Economic Green Shoots Are Strongly Rooted (PineBridge, Apr 2019)

Strategists at PineBridge Investments argue that markets this year will show that global growth is now more robust and less fragile. Their latest Capital Market Line document explains how they're assessing the opportunities in their five-year, forward-looking view of risk and returns.

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