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Global Investment Outlook - Mar 2019

Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2019

Should investors beware the ides of March?  Or will temporary bouts of madness give way to pots of gold waiting for them at the end of the rainbow?  The below list of papers attempts to make sense of the outlook for the global economy, beginning with The Economist Intelligence Unit's top 10 list of specific risks for 2019, including contagion in emerging markets, potential skirmishes in the South China Sea, cyber attacks, and other geopolitical pressure points.  

Several global investment managers also present their monthly or quarterly outlooks on global investment strategy, spliced with their opinions on multi-asset tactical allocations.

clover Mar outlook

Cause for concern? The top 10 risks to the global economy in 2019 (The Economist)

Amidst a worsening overall outlook for the global economy, this report from The Economist Intelligence Unit presents the top 10 specific risks, covering each one in detail.

Traditional Asset Flows Report Q4 2018 (eVestment)

In this report, eVestment tracks the movement of institutional assets (by investor type and domicile) across fixed income, equity, and multi-asset strategies. Their reporting database of long-only managers have a combined AUM of over USD 23 Trillion as of Q4 2018.

March 2019 Investment Monthly (HSBC Global Asset Management)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This monthly paper by HSBC GAM provides helpful insight and commentary on the investment and economic outlook for global markets.

How purpose-driven employees help power profitable companies (Eaton Vance, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

A recent study of 500,000 employees found a link between purpose (as an aspect of corporate culture) and positive risk-adjusted stock returns.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Mar 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Eaton Vance's Monthly Market Monitor is a 44-page chartbook reviewing economic and asset class data in a clear and impactful fashion.

The ties that bind: The future of Europe (Aviva Investors blog, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The European Union faces a multitude of long-term challenges besides Brexit, including the stalled progress of eurozone reform and Eurosceptic movements in Italy and elsewhere.

UBS GWM House View, Feb 2019

UBS's House View documents their short term market outlook, including tactical asset allocation recommendations and longer term themes affecting the global economy.

Cross Asset Investment Strategy (Amundi AM, Mar 2019)

This monthly report from Amundi Asset Management examines global investment views across different asset classes.

1Q19 Outlook: Putting Markets in Perspective (PIMCO)

PIMCO presents their outlook for the first quarter of 2019, with expectations for global economies to converge towards a lower GDP growth trajectory.

Farmland investments: implications of the U.S.-China trade war (Manulife AM, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Manulife Asset Management describes the specific implications of the US-China trade war for farmland investors, including the need to potentially diversify their exposures to particular geographies, crop types, and global export markets.

The inflation story: 2019 and beyond (Hermes IM blog, Feb 2019)

As inflation levels are closely tied to the monetary policy actions of central banks, Hermes looks at the drivers of inflation in several global markets, including the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.

Fleeting Alpha: The Challenge of Consistent Outperformance (S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2019)

This 9-page paper by S&P Dow Jones Indices studies the degree to which outperforming funds from one period continue to beat their benchmarks thereafter.

CIO View (DWS AM, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

This DWS Asset Management report is a 40 page chartbook on the global economic outlook and investment strategy in 2019.

K2 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook (Franklin Templeton, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton's Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook for this quarter recommends discretionary macro, long short credit, sovereign, and relative value fixed income strategies over others.

China Joins the Global Aggregate: A Practical Guide For Investors (AB, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

On April 1st, China joins the Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg. This paper presents a practical guide to the Chinese government bond market, including tax implications for investors and questions about trading.

In the next downturn, who will call the shots? (BNP Paribas blog, Feb 2019)

BNP Paribas Asset Management describes the implications of the 'Great Instability' that has followed the GFC.