Markets Outlook

March 2016 - Global Investment Outlook

Global Investment Outlook – March 2016 Research

Savvy Investor is a free resource hub and research library for institutional investors around the world. We curate the best investment papers, and make them available to our members. Here is a selection of the best papers on the investment outlook as at March 2016.

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The U.S. Recession of 2020 (PIMCO, March 2016)
Joachim Fels discusses the risk of a global recession. While many financial pundits are placing a high probability of a U.S. recession in 2016, he argues that the next recession is more likely to occur in, say, 2020 - or any other year in the intermediate future - just not 2016.

Five Geopolitical Trends Shaping the Investment Landscape (Pioneer, March 2016)
Geopolitical risks continue to rise around the world. Dr. Robert Wescott, former economic advisor to President Bill Clinton, guides us through the five key trends shaping the investment landscape.

Investment Outlook from Bill Gross (Janus Capital, March 2016)
Janus Capital's Bill Gross gives his thoughts on recent monetary policy decisions and the outlook for global credit.

The G4: Undiminished Expectations (BNY Mellon, March 2016)
How might the economies of China, US, India and Japan fare over the coming 12 months? The authors express a measured confidence in the G4 economies, suggesting that 2016 may finish better for equity investors than it started.

Life after BREXIT: What are the UK's options outside the EU? (March 2016)
We list a variety of papers examining the various alternative scenarios for the UK outside of the EU, together with the economic and investment implications.

On The Markets - Global Strategy Monthly (Morgan Stanley, March 2016)
From Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, a roundup of their current investment views, including some interesting one-off articles.

Investment Directions: Year of the Bear? (BlackRock, Feb 2016)
BlackRock sets out their current investment strategy views. This includes their views on US equity factors, their reasons for downgrading both financials and high yield to neutral. The Appendix explains how BlackRock formulates their asset allocation views.

Peak Profits (Research Affiliates, Feb 2016)
The past 30 years have seen the biggest corporations in the world benefit from market expansion, declining costs, and profit growth. But is the profit share of GDP now set to fall?

Foreign Exchange Monthly Outlook (Scotia Bank, March 2016)
From Scotia Bank, a monthly assessment of currency markets. This is the latest in a regular series of monthly reports.

Popular papers from recent months

Asset Management Salaries – new survey results 2015-2016
Our most popular papers – salary surveys from around the world, showing benchmark remuneration for a variety of roles within the asset management industry, at different levels of seniority.

Expected Future Asset Class Returns for 2016-2020 (Robeco)
In this insightful 120 page document, Robeco presents its 2016-2020 forecasts for expected returns for major asset classes, before setting out the reasons underlying these predictions.

2016 Investment Outlook - Cycles Out of Sync (BlackRock)
This paper is now a few months old, but the analysis remains pertinent. For years now, financial markets have been dominated by the monetary policy cycle. As global liquidity reaches its peak, the credit, business and valuation cycles should grow in importance. Peculiarly, these cycles appear to be out of step with each other, making the case for careful navigation over the next 12 months.

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