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June 2016 - Global Investment Outlook

June 2016 - Global Investment Outlook

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The Global Outlook: Stable But Not Secure (PIMCO, June 2016)
PIMCO's investment professionals recently gathered to discuss and debate important questions about the stability of the global economy. Conversations covered central bank activity, China, political populism and other risks. Good investment opportunities remain, but investors must be mindful of heightened uncertainty and policy exhaustion.

June 2016 Investment Outlook (SEB Group)
This 30-page report by SEB Group examines a range of topical global investment issues, from global equities to currencies to "Brexit".

Investment Outlook from Bill Gross (Janus Capital, June 2016)
Artificially high asset prices are the result of compressed "carry" in financial markets, according to Bill Gross. He argues that this leads to a misinterpretation of future risk relative to possible return, something an investor must confront.

Multi-assets markets outlook (Robeco, June 2016)
This document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for a variety of asset classes, including commodities, bond and equities. The authors provide brief analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan and China.

Have Emerging Markets bottomed? The signs to look for (Nikko AM)
In the last couple of years, capital has been leaving emerging markets, driven by lower growth expectations and concern over higher interest rates in the US. But now, there appears to be a fundamental change occurring in emerging markets. After years of under-performance, the outlook is brighter. Valuations are more attractive and capital flows may be turning around. Is it too early for asset allocators to commit again to emerging markets? What are the indicators - the signposts - that investors need to see, in order to believe that capital should be committed to the asset class?

Oil Market Fundamentals over the Next Five Years (Deloitte, May 2016)
This paper by Deloitte MarketPoint examines the future of the oil and gas industry following recent falling oil prices and deep reductions in capital expenditure. It considers the outlook for the next five years.

Oil Update: Positive outlook or flash in the pan? (Nikko AM, June 2016)
This article from Nikko Asset Management explains the recent rally in oil prices, arguing that medium term fundamentals are improving.

Unlocking the Credit Cycle (Loomis Sayles, May 2016)
Based on their measures of liquidity and risk appetite, the authors of this paper break the credit cycle down into four phases - downturn, credit repair, recovery and expansion to late cycle.

Credit Check - Macro Insights (Goldman Sachs, late May 2016)
After seven years, an epic credit cycle is winding down, and its legacy is an environment of historically low yields and rising risks. Against this backdrop, investors may find complacency as costly as excess caution. In this issue, the authors highlight potential pitfalls in an uncertain economic and policy environment after a long and stimulus-fueled expansion. They also explore opportunities within credit markets and across the fixed income spectrum.

Brexit: What investors should consider (JP Morgan, June 2016)
Stephanie Flanders, JP Morgan's Chief Market Strategist for the UK and Europe, examines the implications for investors of a potential British exit from the European Union.

Brexit: Utopia or Dystopia? (Western Asset, 2016)
Andrew Belshaw, Head of Investment Management in London, examines the case for "Yes" and "No" decisions in the UK's referendum vote on June 23rd 2016 and the possible impacts on trade, investment, immigration, and the UK economy.