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Global Investment Outlook - Jun 2019

Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2019

Last month there were quite a few developments on the geopolitical front - Theresa May resigned, European Parliamentary elections were held, Narendra Modi was re-elected in India, and U.S. President Donald Trump continued to use tariffs as a bargaining chip in trade-related discussions with other countries.  But what, pray tell, is the political, economic, and financial market outlook for the coming month?

We sincerely hope that the below list of monthly outlook papers will shed some light on this subject.  We've included a couple of papers that take a longer-term perspective as well, such as PIMCO's Secular Outlook, QMA's Capital Market Assumptions, and insight into 'megatrends' from iShares. 

june 19 outlook


A New Perspective on Global Consolidation (Capital Group, May 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This Capital Group paper discusses the ebb and flow of consolidation waves (via M&A) across several sectors. Future M&A activity may slow as trade tensions increase, but by and large, global multinational organizations are expected to continue their dominance.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Jun 2019)

Eaton Vance's Monthly Market Monitor is a 44-page chartbook reviewing economic and asset class data in a clear and impactful fashion.

Interest Rates: Countdown to Zero - The Final Chapters (PGIM Fixed Income, May 2019)

Robert Tipp, CFA, Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategist, and Head of Global Bonds, discusses the demographic and economic factors that affect projections of the long-run equilibrium for global interest rates, concluding that rates are likely to stay lower for longer.

Monthly macro view: trading data risk for geopolitics (Manulife AM, May 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

In this monthly outlook document, the authors predominantly look into geopolitics, the US-China trade war, and the global effects of political uncertainty. They also cover recent economic data in the U.S. and Europe.

Global Investment Views (Amundi AM, Jun 2019)

Markets have awoken from their previously complacent and relatively stable status to find that the risks of a trade war have increased.

U.S. Outlook: The expansion carries on (Capital Group blog, Jun 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

More volatility may be on the horizon, given the Fed's new dovish stance on monetary policy this year, while the late-stage economic cycle continues to hurtle onward.

Multi-Asset Market Outlook (Robeco, Jun 2019)

Robeco presents their multi-asset market outlook for the month of Jun 2019. This month's theme is 'The new Long March of China.'

Megatrends: The forces shaping our future (iShares, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The authors present a research study looking at structural shifts in the global economy and how these shifts affect their investment outlook.

Structural Megatrends in Real Estate: Engaging the Future (Nuveen, 2019)

This report is a collaborative effort between Nuveen Real Estate and MIPIM. It includes thoughts on the main drivers of structural changes that the authors believe are most relevant in shaping the future of real estate.

Investment Traffic Lights (DWS AM, Jun 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

In this month's Investment Traffic Lights, DWS Asset Management reviews market movements for the month of May, 2019, noting that it was an especially tough month for global equity markets, largely due to international trade-related concerns.

2019 Q2 Capital Market Assumptions (QMA)

QMA's CMAs provide a 10-year, forward looking glimpse at expectations for the widely held asset classes, including equity, fixed income, real assets, and currencies.

Invesco Fixed Income Multi-Sector Asset Allocation Outlook Q2 2019

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco's top-down Q2 fixed income outlook begins with a macro overlay, followed by their regional and currency stance, before moving into strategic recommendations for fixed income sub-asset classes such as IG credit, HY, EM, munis, structured credit, and bank loans.

Late-Cycle Investing: Survive and Thrive (Neuberger Berman, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

When will the current, lengthy, late-stage business cycle come to an end? Neuberger Berman describes four principles that may assist investors in navigating their way through the present economic and market landscape.

China's Debt Problem (Matthews Asia, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Cleaning up China’s debt problem will be expensive, but is unlikely to result in a hard landing or banking crisis.

Oil in 3D: The Demand Outlook to 2050 (Barclays, 2019)

Barclays looks into the global reliance on oil reserves over the next several decades, considering three possible oil consumption scenarios and their resulting implications.

Secular Outlook: Dealing With Disruption (PIMCO, May 2019)

Once a year, PIMCO releases their 'Secular Outlook,' which covers major secular drivers that could potentially disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years.