Global Investment Outlook - February 2019

Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2019

This February, we return to our regularly scheduled programming, listing all of the monthly investment outlooks that your hearts could possibly desire.  State Street Global Advisors begins by discussing the investment implications of six relatively less likely 'gray swan' events in 2019. These can be contrasted with other more likely scenarios and strategic recommendations within the global, multi-asset outlooks listed afterwards.  

Additionally, don't miss FTSE Russell's foray into the Indian fixed income market, and several other papers that focus in on the opportunity set in emerging markets.  

Gray Swans for 2019 (State Street Global Advisors)

This blog post presents outlier scenarios that could have a big impact on investments in 2019.

Multi-asset market outlook (Robeco, Feb 2019)

This monthly document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for global equities, bonds, and foreign exchange. The authors also provide a brief regional economic analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, and China.

CIO Investment Outlook: Brace for a credit squeeze (LGIM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

How will tightening financial conditions impact borrowers in 2019, and what are the implications for recession risk in the upcoming year? LGIM discusses these and other questions in their monthly CIO Investment Outlook.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Feb 2019)

Eaton Vance's Monthly Market Monitor is a periodic chartbook of the most pertinent market-related data across multiple asset classes.

Asset allocation dashboard (BNP Paribas AM)

BNP Paribas describes their strategic asset allocation recommendations for equities and fixed income, stressing the need for tactical positioning in Q1 2019.

The Outlook for the Trade War: Assessing Trump's Next Move (PGIM Fixed Income)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Given the increased traction in trade negotiations between China and the United States, PGIM Fixed Income looks at trade-related outcomes for the year ahead and the implications for markets.

Outlook: Long-term perspective on markets and economies (Capital Group, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Most major economies are now entering late-cycle territory (with the US leading the way). Capital Group provides an overview of their economic outlook for EM and DM countries, as well as strategic recommendations for 2019.

Investment Traffic Lights (DWS AM, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

DWS Asset Management presents their monthly 'investment traffic lights' asset allocation views, as well as a brief summary of market activity in January.

Emerging-market economies: a brighter outlook for 2019? (Hermes, Jan 2019)

In this 2019 outlook for emerging markets, Hermes discusses the factors affecting the economic outlook for emerging markets, including cross-border lending, central bank debt, and the US dollar.

Global Macro Outlook (AB, Jan 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

We expect global growth to continue to slow in 2019—a normalization, if you will, back towards growth rates more consistent with a soft secular backdrop. To be sure, this doesn't add up to recession. But softer growth and reduced liquidity do increase vulnerability. If any one of several key risks becomes reality, it could easily push us toward a worst-case outcome.

Macro Monthly: Don't Fear the Fed (UBS AM, Feb 2019)

UBS Asset Management looks at recent activity by the US Federal Reserve, specifically a shift towards more dovish policy and a pause in interest rate hikes.

The Indian fixed income market (FTSE Russell, Jan 2019)

FTSE Russell looks at the Indian fixed income market in detail, given India's rapidly expanding economy and its demographic tailwinds, also presenting the opportunities at hand for foreign investors.

Emerging Markets: Why the Glass is Two-Thirds Full (PineBridge blog, Feb 2019)

A recovery in Chinese growth and a more reasonable path for US interest rates could be beneficial for emerging markets. PineBridge looks at the EM outlook in further detail.

Global Outlook (The Economist, Feb 2019)

This report by the Economist Intelligence Unit provides new forecasts for different economies around the world, as well as insights into exchange rates, global trade, commodity prices, and more.

Global Economic and Asset Allocation Views, Q1 2019 (Schroders)

This quarterly report by Schroders takes the temperature of the global economy and asset allocation strategies.

Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing (PIMCO, Jan 2019)

Was the December US equity sell-off merely a late-cycle correction, or a harbinger of the end of the expansion? PIMCO provides several strategic recommendations and prefers tilting towards higher quality and increased liquidity.

Cross Asset Investment Strategy (Amundi AM, Feb 2019)

This monthly report from Amundi Asset Management examines global investment views across different asset classes.

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce (Moody's, Feb 2019)

A truce currently exists between the US and China as trade-related negotiations continue between the two countries. Moody's examines multiple scenarios, including one where negotiations break down and tensions reignite.