Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging markets - secular and structural views

With emerging markets, it's essential to take a step back from time to time and survey the bigger picture, looking at the secular and structural landscape. Here are some papers that we think do that well:

1. Emerging markets: Cyclically challenged, structurally adjusting, secularly promising (March 2015, JP Morgan)

The author, from JP Morgan, examines the cyclical, structural and secular outlook for a variety of emerging markets.

2. Frontier Markets and The Opportunity They Present (Segal Consulting)

This article explores the characteristics of frontier markets, before questioning whether investors should consider an allocation to the asset class - and, if so, how and why?

3. Does the Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets?

Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff, examines whether the Shiller CAPE ratio adds value as a tool for forecasting emerging market returns. Written in 2012, the author examines empirical evidence for 35 different markets, concluding that the Shiller CAPE ratio is a useful tool for asset allocation purposes, particularly over a longer-term horizon.

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