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The Outlook for Emerging Markets in 2018

  • Posted by: ,  Chief Executive
  • 20 February 2018
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14 Papers on Emerging Markets in 2018

Relative dollar weakness and increased GDP growth were tailwinds for both EM equities and EM debt in 2017. Will these conditions persist in 2018, or will geopolitical risks, a US dollar recovery, or volatility cause a new course to be charted? 

Here we have gathered 14 of the best papers on Savvy Investor relating to EM equities, EM local debt, the Chinese shadow banking system, and the overall outlook for emerging markets in 2018. 

Savvy Investor

A New Dawn for Emerging Markets Equities (Barings, Feb 2018)
Portfolio managers at Barings explain their continued optimism for the outlook for emerging markets and the factors that will likely help to sustain performance in this asset class.

Casting the widest net in emerging-markets debt (Eaton Vance, Feb 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the USA or in Canada)
EM local currency debt performed well In 2017 and was the highest yielding major fixed income sector last year. Eaton Vance explains why casting a wide net is necessary when considering EM debt investments.

2018 Emerging Markets Outlook: the tailwinds have arrived (Hermes IM, Feb 2018))
In the past 2 years, tailwinds have arrived that may tip the scales in favor of emerging markets. These include the commodity cycle, improving productivity, and a decline in the US Dollar.

EM Local Debt: Focused on Fundamentals (Barings, Feb 2018)
Barings peels back the curtain in this report, giving readers a sneak peek at their investment process for EM local debt, which involves a rigorous framework and a combination of both quantitative and qualitative analysis.

Emerging Markets Outlook 2018 (Legal & General IM, Jan 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the USA or in Canada)
What challenges do emerging market bonds face after two strong years? Simon Quijano-Evans, EM strategist at LGIM, explores further.

Will the Renminbi Surprise the Market Again in 2018? (BNP Paribas AM, Feb 2018)
Consensus expectations are for the renminbi to decline vs the dollar in 2018, but will strength in CNY persist this year, defying expectations in a similar fashion to the previous year?

Why China A-Shares, Why Now? (William Blair, Jan 2018)
A new opportunity is presenting itself for investment in China A-Shares. William Blair discusses Chinese equity markets, their prior neglect by institutional investors, and the present opportunity at hand.

Modern Slavery in Africa: The True Cost of Cobalt Mining (Hermes IM, Feb 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the USA)
Hermes discusses the supply chain for cobalt, the impact that cobalt mining can have on indigenous populations, and the increased demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries.

The implications of China's transition to sustainable growth (ECB, 2018)
The ECB analyzes imbalances in China, the risks that these imbalances pose to the Chinese economic outlook, and the impact that China's transition to sustainable growth could have upon the global economy.

Mapping shadow banking in China: structure and dynamics (BIS, Feb 2018)
The BIS has developed a map that helps to explain the structure of the shadow banking system in China and the ways that various entities are linked to each other. The dynamics of this system are rapidly changing and becoming more complex.

Top Risks 2018: China loves a vacuum (Ian Bremmer, Jan 2018)
This 25-page report by Eurasia Group explores the top geopolitical risks facing the world in 2018, and their effects on the global economy and investment.

Investing in a World of Overpriced Assets (Jeremy Grantham, GMO Dec 2017)
Jeremy Grantham ponders how he would manage money if the failure to meet a 10-year return target would result in death. He concludes that Emerging Markets are the safest long-term bet.

EM Debt: Still going strong but beware headwinds (JP Morgan AM, 2018)
JP Morgan AM's latest Emerging Markets Debt Strategy paper features quarterly themes and implications for the EM debt asset class.

2018 Emerging Markets Outlook (Mirae Asset Financial Group, 2018)
Mirae Asset Management explains why EM equities are likely in the beginning stages of a several-year recovery process and why they are optimistic about continued EM performance.

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