Global Strategy Outlook

PRESIDENT TRUMP - THE MARKET IMPACT

How should investors respond to a Trump victory?

What are the investment implications of a Trump presidency? With the Republicans having retained control of both houses, there is potential for far-reaching policy change across multiple areas. Here is our selection of the best white papers summarizing the market implications. 

Papers written after the election:

Bonds shrug off Trump's Brexit-style surprise win (Robeco, Nov 2016)
The reaction of bond markets to Donald Trump's surprise victory was not as bad as the aftermath of Brexit, and could eventually benefit fixed income investors.

U.S. Election and Equities (GSAM, Nov 2016)
This paper by GSAM examines the impact of the US presidential election result on equities.

U.S. Elections 2016: Key Takeaways (Pioneer, Nov 2016)
Donald Trump has won the 2016 US presidential election, upending polls and market expectations, and will become the country’s 45th President. This briefing by Pioneer Investments looks at some of the main implications going forward.

You’re Hired: Janus’ Point of View on the 2016 U.S. Elections
Janus provide their view on the outlook for equity market sectors and major asset classes, in the aftermath of the election results.

Uncertain Investment Outlook Comes With President-Elect Trump (T. Rowe Price)
During his campaign, Trump suggested far-reaching policy changes covering fiscal, immigration, trade and tax issues. T. Rowe Price assesses the implications.

Trump’s Triumph Adds Unpredictability to an Already Uncertain World (Allianz, Nov 2016)
The incoming US president is a political outsider who wants to make his presence known and upend the status quo. While the markets may like some of Trump’s ideas, they value certainty more – and that will be in short supply.

U.S. Elections: A populist victory (JP Morgan, Nov 2016)
After a long and brutal U.S. Presidential election campaign, Donald Trump emerged victorious. Trump’s populist messages of lower taxes, gun rights and a conservative religious agenda, allied with opposition to trade agreements and illegal immigration, were ultimately successful in knitting together a winning coalition. 

Macro and Asset Allocation After Trump (GAM, Nov 2016)
A first reaction from Larry Hatheway, Chief Economist and Head of Multi Asset Portfolio Solutions, on the implication of the US election result for investors.

Donald Trump is the Next President as Brexit Risk Crosses the Pond (PineBridge, Nov 2016)
Financial markets are reacting dramatically to the news that Donald Trump has won the US presidential election with sharp declines in global equities, a major rally in Treasuries, and a selloff of the dollar. What’s next?

Implications of Trump's Election Win (Pictet, Nov 2016)
We are cautious about the impact of a Trump presidency and are not changing our economic forecasts at this time. Uncertainty about how Trump will govern make near-term volatility spikes likely.

Q&A: What does Donald Trump’s Presidential victory mean for the economy? (The Telegraph)
President-elect Donald Trump has made a swathe of promises on the economy, which he claims will boost growth enormously. The policies are sometimes contradictory, however, typically lacking detail and often facing strong criticism from economists. Here are the key questions.

U.S. Election: Trump win (BlackRock, Nov 2016)
We see Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory bringing market and policy uncertainty in the short run. Trump’s agenda lacks detail and departs from the Republican Party tradition on trade, security and entitlements.

The election ends with a Trump victory. Now the real work starts. (Invesco, Nov 2016)
Karen Dunn Kelley, Senior Managing Director of Investments, examines which of Donald Trump's campaign promises might translate into policy reform. 

2016 Election Update: Analyzing the market impact (Ivy Investments, Nov 2016)
In what many viewed as a long shot only weeks ago, the 2016 election has put Republican nominee Donald Trump in the White House as the 45th President of the U.S. This briefing analyzes the market impact.

What Trump's Upset Win Means for Markets (video) SSGA, Nov 2016
Donald Trump pulled off a surprise victory to become the 45th president of the United States. As with initial market reaction to Brexit, we are likely to see heightened volatility as investors try to digest what a Trump presidency will mean for the economy, industry and trade. This briefing explores the sectors might benefit from a Trump administration and why investors should review their portfolio shock absorbers in the face of potentially choppy markets.

Observations on the U.S. Elections (Goldman Sachs, Nov 2016)
Analysts at GSAM examine the market reaction to the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. 

Capitol Hill Donald Trump election market impact

Papers written prior to the election:

Trump triumph a disaster for markets (Robeco)
What would a Clinton or Trump victory in the US Presidential election mean for investors? Here are the full comments of our portfolio managers for developed and emerging equities, and for government and corporate bonds.

Implications of a Trump victory (AXA IM)
This analysis considers the potential implications of a Trump victory on the election’s outcome on financial assets.

Trump - Another Brexit Moment? (Absolute Return Partners, Nov 2016)
In this letter, Neils C. Jensen of Absolute Return Partners discusses some of the parallels between the rise of Trump and the UK's Brexit vote in June. He asks what the impact on the U.S. economic landscape might be.

Global Impact of the 2016 U.S. Elections (UBS, Oct 2016)
This paper by UBS examines the global impact of the U.S. presidential elections. It looks at the economy, legislation, different asset classes, and more.

An Analysis of Donald Trump's Revised Tax Plan (Tax Policy Center)
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Donald Trump’s revised tax proposal, which would significantly reduce marginal tax rates, increase standard deduction amounts, repeal personal exemptions, cap itemized deductions, and allow businesses to elect to expense new investment and not deduct interest expense.

Election Impact: Implications for U.S. Asset Classes (UBS, Oct 2016)
This report by UBS Asset Management examines some possible implications for different asset classes arising from the 2016 U.S. elections.

Trump vs Clinton: Investment Impact and Strategies (Amundi)
More important than the outcome of the presidential elections per se, attention should be paid to the configuration of the new congress: the economic impact of the elections will depend substantially on its colour.

The Election Effect: Examining the Impact of a Clinton or Trump Administration on Global Financial Markets (BNY Mellon)
This briefing by BNY Mellon's thought leaders and strategists examines the impact on global financial markets of a Clinton or Trump presidency.

U.S. Election: Don't Forget the Fed (video) AB, Nov 2016
In this video, Douglas J. Pebles and Paul DeNoon of AB discuss how the presidential election result might inform Fed policy.

Clinton vs. Trump: How the Economic Plans Stack Up
This infographic by AB provides a side-by-side analysis of the economic policies of both candidates.

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