Commodity Markets Outlook

Commodities - do you really understand them?

We've curated a range of great commodity papers covering: super-cycles, value and momentum, seasonal effects, alternative beta in commodities, inflation hedging properties, explosive booms and busts. You can't claim to really understand the complexities of commodity investing until you've understood many of these features of the asset class.

1. From boom to bust: A typology of real commodity prices in the long run (NBER)

This paper from NEBR provides a holistic description of the character of inflation-adjusted commodity prices over time, including secular trends, medium-term commodity cycles, and short-term periods of boom and bust.

2. Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century

This paper analyzes secular commodity cycles and provides insight into the current cycle by analyzing the long-run relationship between commodity prices cycles and global output fluctuations.

3. Alternative Beta Strategies in Commodities (CAIA)

In this paper, the authors explore risk-based and factor-based alternative beta indices for commodities