Global Economic Outlook

Clintonomics vs Trumponomics - how should investors view the U.S. election?

Analyzing the likely market impact of the US election

What would Trumponomics - or Clintonomics - look like? And what impact would this have on US and global markets? Here is a selection of our favorite papers, compiled by the Savvy Research team.

United States flag 2016 presidential election

U.S. Presidential Poll of Polls of Polls (regularly updated)
Savvy Investor is monitoring the results of the leading "Polls of Polls". Our "Poll of Polls of Polls" will be updated regularly, providing the latest poll scores and the implied probability of a Clinton (or Trump) victory.

U.S. Presidential Elections: The Home Stretch (Pioneer, Sep 2016)
While the impact of the U.S. election on markets is likely to be far more muted than the intensity of campaign rhetoric might suggest, this paper still explores some important questions on the potential impact on investment strategy.

How long-term investors should view the 2016 U.S. election (JP Morgan, Sep 2016)
This paper by JP Morgan discusses the forthcoming crowded political agenda and its significance for the present and future state of the U.S. economy. In the authors' view, financial markets are complacent.

The 2016 U.S. Election: All bark, no bite for markets (TIAA, Sep 2016)
While the authors of this paper don't expect the U.S. election to be a driving factor in investment performance over the next few months, it's still possible for the race to change in a way that invites significant market volatility.

Presidential Election Chartbook (BBVA, July 2016)
The favorability of this year's U.S. presidential election candidates has been historically low. Economic and market-based forecasts suggest a win for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats, although geopolitical turmoil and financial volatility has reduced their lead in this national vote-share model.

What would happen if Hillary Clinton dropped out of U.S. election race? (The Telegraph, Sep 2016)
For weeks, statements from the Trump camp about Clinton's health had been dismissed as a "conspiracy theories". It's now been revealed that she is suffering from pneumonia. What would happen if she dropped out of the race?

Clintonomics vs. Trumponomics (Michael J. Boskin, Sep 2016)
The U.S. presidential election race has so far focused on relatively trivial matters. Far less, however, has been said about the economic ideals of either leading candidate. In this piece, Michael J. Boskin examines where the two candidates stand on important economic issues. 

Complacency Ahead of Election and Possible Fed Hike (Pioneer, Sep 2016)
This piece by Pioneer Investments examines the the state of the U.S. presidential race, the challenges faced by the candidates, the Electoral College outlook and finally the financial markets implications.

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