LATEST UPDATE: LIST OF MOST RECENT WHITE PAPERS ON BREXIT.
What will happen after the vote on December 11?
With MPs from all sides ranged against her, it is looking unlikely that Theresa May will win parliamentary approval for her Brexit Deal.
What happens next is uncertain. Mrs May could face votes of no confidence, both in the government and in her own premiership. Thereafter, the UK Parliament could possibly agree a plan B (possibly seeking a permanent customs union, as favoured by the Labour Party). The alternatives are to drift towards a disorderly, no-deal exit (which few want) or to call a second referendum.
Last week, ITV's well-connected political correspondent, Robert Peston, said that, "For the first time, I think there is a reasonable prospect that we will end up staying in the EU." As of the time of writing, the Betfair betting exchange is reflecting a 35% chance of a second EU referendum in 2019, although most strategists would argue that the probability is lower than this.
In the list below, we've rounded up some of the best recent commentary on Brexit. It seems that we have an interesting few weeks ahead!
BREXIT: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Robert Peston argues in the Spectator that Theresa May is set to lose the all-important vote in the House of Commons next month. The only uncertainty, in his mind, is the scale of the defeat. And this will determine what happens next…
The Guardian discusses the possibility that Labour and Tory members might coalesce around a soft Brexit option if Theresa May's current deal is voted down on December 11th.
ZeroHedge draws together the views of multiple analysts to present their take on the way ahead, including an intriguing probability decision tree.
Amundi Asset Management discusses Brexit scenarios, the implications for the UK economy, and the potential effect upon UK markets.
Portfolio Manager and Strategist Stephen Macklow-Smith discusses the Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement, the possibility for a second Brexit referrendum, and related asset class implications.
The BBC presents a visual timeline of what happens after the EU Summit on 25 November and the vote in the UK parliament in December.
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe
Fidelity's markets analyst, Charlotte Harington argues that investors are underestimating the odds of a "no deal" result.
Theresa May's newly drafted treaty seems to present two options - freedom of movement and a United Kingdom of four British nations, or no more free movement, while leaving Northern Ireland behind in the single market.
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region
This paper summarizes the most important facets of the new Brexit agreement and offers three likely scenarios for the near term.
As the Brexit process unfolds, global policymakers should give heed to the risks that arise out of political and economic fragmentation.
Pictet Wealth Management discusses some of the challenges that lie in the path, prior to the Brexit deadline on the 29th of March, as the outlook for the pound.
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CURRENT DEAL
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates the economic effects of the recently proposed Brexit deal.
The UK's Centre for Economic Performance assesses the economic impact of the deal currently on the table.
THE ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY
The Investment Association's lays out their priorities for Brexit negotiations, highlighting the critical importance of the asset management sector and hoping for a new partnership between the EU and the UK.
What are the implications of a hard or soft Brexit for investment management firms in the UK and Europe? CFA Institute looks at the legal and regulatory side of several potential outcomes.
DERIVATIVES AND COUNTERPARTY RISK
This paper delineates why a 'no-deal' Brexit scenario could be disastrous for the financial market regulation, especially in the context of the OTC derivatives market.
This paper outlines the issues that CFTC-registered US entities and market participants must consider in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit.