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Brexit: what happens after Dec 11? Plan B or second referendum?

  • Posted by: ,  Chief Executive
  • 28 November 2018
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LATEST UPDATE: LIST OF MOST RECENT WHITE PAPERS ON BREXIT.


What will happen after the vote on December 11?

With MPs from all sides ranged against her, it is looking unlikely that Theresa May will win parliamentary approval for her Brexit Deal.

What happens next is uncertain. Mrs May could face votes of no confidence, both in the government and in her own premiership. Thereafter, the UK Parliament could possibly agree a plan B (possibly seeking a permanent customs union, as favoured by the Labour Party). The alternatives are to drift towards a disorderly, no-deal exit (which few want) or to call a second referendum.


Last week, ITV's well-connected political correspondent, Robert Peston, said that, "For the first time, I think there is a reasonable prospect that we will end up staying in the EU." As of the time of writing, the Betfair betting exchange is reflecting a 35% chance of a second EU referendum in 2019, although most strategists would argue that the probability is lower than this.

In the list below, we've rounded up some of the best recent commentary on Brexit. It seems that we have an interesting few weeks ahead!

Brexit


BREXIT: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?


Will May’s Brexit deal get through the Commons? (Robert Peston, 22 Nov 2018)

Robert Peston argues in the Spectator that Theresa May is set to lose the all-important vote in the House of Commons next month. The only uncertainty, in his mind, is the scale of the defeat. And this will determine what happens next…

Ministers consider ‘Norway plus’ as plan B (The Guardian, 26 Nov 2018)

The Guardian discusses the possibility that Labour and Tory members might coalesce around a soft Brexit option if Theresa May's current deal is voted down on December 11th.

Confused About Brexit? Here's What Comes Next (ZeroHedge, 24 Nov 2018)

ZeroHedge draws together the views of multiple analysts to present their take on the way ahead, including an intriguing probability decision tree.

Brexit: What should investors expect? (Amundi AM, 26 Nov 2018)

Amundi Asset Management discusses Brexit scenarios, the implications for the UK economy, and the potential effect upon UK markets.

JP Morgan AM Weekly Strategy Report: Thoughts on Brexit (19 Nov 2018)

Portfolio Manager and Strategist Stephen Macklow-Smith discusses the Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement, the possibility for a second Brexit referrendum, and related asset class implications.

Brexit: What could happen next? (BBC, 26 Nov 2019)

The BBC presents a visual timeline of what happens after the EU Summit on 25 November and the vote in the UK parliament in December.

Podcast: Why Brexit matters (and why it doesn't) - Fidelity Intl, 23 Nov 2018

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Fidelity's markets analyst, Charlotte Harington argues that investors are underestimating the odds of a "no deal" result.

The real Brexit bill: Northern Ireland - Politico (25 Nov 2018)

Theresa May's newly drafted treaty seems to present two options - freedom of movement and a United Kingdom of four British nations, or no more free movement, while leaving Northern Ireland behind in the single market.

Habemus Brexit! (Manulife AM, 16 Nov 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

This paper summarizes the most important facets of the new Brexit agreement and offers three likely scenarios for the near term.

Brexit and the Global Economy (Mohamed El-Erian, 22 Nov 2018)

As the Brexit process unfolds, global policymakers should give heed to the risks that arise out of political and economic fragmentation.

After May's Divorce Deal: The Road Ahead for Brexit (Pictet WM, 15 Nov 2018)

Pictet Wealth Management discusses some of the challenges that lie in the path, prior to the Brexit deadline on the 29th of March, as the outlook for the pound.


ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CURRENT DEAL


The Economic Effects of the Proposed Brexit Deal (NIESR, Nov 2018)

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates the economic effects of the recently proposed Brexit deal.

The economic consequences of the Brexit deal (CEP, Nov 2018)

The UK's Centre for Economic Performance assesses the economic impact of the deal currently on the table.


THE ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY


The UK Asset Management Industry Post-Brexit (The Investment Association)

The Investment Association's lays out their priorities for Brexit negotiations, highlighting the critical importance of the asset management sector and hoping for a new partnership between the EU and the UK.

Brexit - What It Means for Investment Management (CFA Institute, 2017)

What are the implications of a hard or soft Brexit for investment management firms in the UK and Europe? CFA Institute looks at the legal and regulatory side of several potential outcomes.


DERIVATIVES AND COUNTERPARTY RISK


Impact of Brexit on OTC Derivatives in a 'no deal' scenario (ISDA, Oct 2018)

This paper delineates why a 'no-deal' Brexit scenario could be disastrous for the financial market regulation, especially in the context of the OTC derivatives market.

Brexit: Impact Assessment for U.S. Market Participants (ISDA, 2018)

This paper outlines the issues that CFTC-registered US entities and market participants must consider in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit.

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