Global Strategy Outlook

BREXIT BAROMETER - Traders seek cover as Brits go to polls in uncertain EU Referendum

BREXIT BAROMETER - Traders seek cover as Brits go to polls in uncertain EU Referendum​

Polling stations across the UK opened this morning for the long-awaited EU Referendum vote. Although final polls show a very narrow lead for REMAIN, it's clear that it will be a close contest with the two most important factors being undecided voters and turnout. 

This week, markets have responded positively to the broad reduction (of between 1-4 percentage points) in the implied probability of a BREXIT. However, this brief bump cannot be relied upon as an indication of the final result. According to Bloomberg, bond and currency traders are seeking refuge as there are signs already that liquidity has been deteriorating in some investment havens.

Below, we record the scores of four "polls of polls" and four measures of implied probability.

Probability of BREXIT - our last update: June 23rd at 9am London time.

IG Index - 19.5% (updated 23 June)

Betfair - 24% (updated 23 June)

Oddschecker (best odds) - 23% (updated 23 June)

Number Cruncher Politics - 25% (updated 23 June)

Polls of Polls (in : out : undecided)

Number Cruncher Politics - 43 : 45 : 12 (updated 20 June)

FT Brexit poll tracker - 47 : 45 : 12 (updated 23 June)

The Economist poll tracker - 44 : 43: 11  (updated 20 June)

WhatUKThinks EU Poll - 50 : 50 (updated 23 June - undecided not shown)

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IG Index - current betting on BREMAIN
Spread-betting firm IG Index. The current pricing is also the implied probability of a "remain" vote.

Betfair
Peer-to-peer betting platform. Live odds. The probability here is the reciprocal of price.

Latest bookmaking odds from Oddschecker
​Oddschecker shows latest odds from a wide range of online bookmarkers.

Number Cruncher Politics (Matt Singh)
​BREXIT poll tracker, giving equal weight to telephone and online polls, together with sophisticated analysis modelling the probability of an OUT vote.

The Economist's BREXIT poll-tracker
Excellent at-a-glance analysis showing voting intentions based on demographics, geography and party affiliations.

The FT's BREXIT poll-tracker
Graphs and tables with a full list of the individual polls.

WhatUKThinks
The "What UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls" is based on the average share of the vote for ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ in the six most recent polls of voting intentions in the EU Referendum.

For a list of the best white papers, analysing the impact of BREXIT upon markets, UK pension schemes and the UK financial services sector, visit the Savvy Blog.

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