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2020 Mid-Year Outlook — Part II

Top Papers on the Global Investment Outlook

A plethora of perspectives exist on the likely shape of the recovery, the economic scenarios before us, and the phases each country (or even city) might be in or entering. It can be a difficult roadmap to navigate. 

For this reason, we've provided a second set of mid-year outlooks, each its own compass for the purpose of setting expectations for capital markets, economic data, and the recovery itself over the second half of the year.  

midyear outlook 2020 compass

Global Outlook: Real estate during a crisis (PGIM Real Estate, May 2020)

In this Global Outlook paper from the PGIM Real Estate research team, they evaluate regional perspectives, identify global themes and assess emerging investment opportunities.

Midyear Outlook: Risk, recovery and new realities (Franklin Templeton, Jul 2020)

The authors are not convinced that a V-shaped recovery will take place. This Franklin Templeton Outlook examines several short-term risks and opportunities, including the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.

Why a New COVID-19 Financial Crisis is Unlikely (Aviva Investors, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Why might banks be well-placed to withstand the economic and societal damage wreaked by COVID-19? Halting dividends has been one step that helped to garner an additional level of financial stability.

Equity Market Stress Monitor® Report: Q3 2020 (Intech)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Intech reports on market stress and signs of instability like capital concentration that exist behind the scenes of the current market rally. These five stress metrics provide further detail.

Gold: Mid-Year Outlook 2020 (World Gold Council, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The authors make the case for gold as a strategic allocation, given the high risk and uncertainty in capital markets currently, positive price momentum and a low opportunity cost.

Video: Rising COVID-19 case numbers in the U.S. (Janus Henderson, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

The United States had a spike in COVID-19 cases in recent months, unlike many other countries that have managed to flatten the curve. Janus Henderson analyst Agustin Mohedas provides insight into why this is the case.

The V-shaped recovery seems to be confirmed… (Candriam, Jul 2020)

In this brief outlook piece, Candriam provides US sector-specific recommendations and asset allocation recommendations for global equity markets as well.

Capital Market Line: 5 year return estimates (PineBridge Investments, Jul 2020)

PineBridge's Q3 Capital Market Line (CML) update favours growth and risk assets, emerging markets debt and investment grade corporates.

Mid-Year Outlooks (Eaton Vance, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Will the second quarter's stimulus-led optimism in global markets be replaced by a more somber (and perhaps more realistic) assessment of damage to the global economy in Q3 or Q4?

Global Macro Outlook — An uneven recovery begins (Manulife, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Manulife prefers to characterize the recovery in phases (rather than shapes): the rapid rebound, the stall-out phase and the new normal. The last of these phases likely won't begin until 2022.

House View, Q3 2020: Finding the new ‘normal’ (Aviva Investors, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Within their Q3 House View, Aviva Investors suggests three potential economic scenarios for the next 18 months as well as key investment themes for Q3.

Qontigo Insight Q2 2020 Risk Review: The Storm after the storm?

Qontigo provides charts and commentary on global equity markets, including updates on volatility during Q2, performance and various risk metrics.

10 Predictions for 2020: Midyear update (Nuveen)

Nuveen provides a necessary mid-year update to their (typically annually released) 10 Predictions for 2020, including a scorecard reading for each and a new projection for the remainder of the year.

Q3 Outlook: Optimism versus reality (LGIM, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

The authors state that there may be a disconnect between the real economy and market prices — one only has to look so far as corporate earnings to see why.

12-Month Economic & Market Outlook (DWS, 2020)

This 37-page quarterly outlook from DWS contains updates to their 12-month multi-asset outlook, based upon recent events.

Multi-Asset Market Outlook (Robeco, Jul 2020)

The featured article in this month's edition of Robeco's Multi-Asset Outlook is on factors that may lead to an appreciation of the euro (especially versus the dollar).

Podcast: Much too little or too much inflation? (BNP Paribas, Jul 2020)

Will the giant wall of COVID-19 money (from both government programmes and central banks) lead to increased inflation in the years to come?

Time to Play a Cyclical Recovery in European Equity (Amundi, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Lessening political risk, plus fiscal and monetary support could point to an economic recovery in the Eurozone in 2021.

Podcast: New economy sectors and Asia's recovery (Matthews Asia, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

Matthews Asia Portfolio Manager, Michael J Oh, CFA, offers insight into the Asian economic recovery, innovative sectors in Asia, and companies that could be considered 'digital-forward.'

Is the Coronavirus Rocking the Foundations of Capital Markets? (CFA Institute, Jun 2020)

CFA Institute discusses the ways that the economic crisis brought about by COVID-19 is affecting capital markets, the investment management industry in particular, and the response of regulatory authorities.

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