2020 Investment Outlook: Insights from across the industry
Be Careful What You Wish For!
In this latest roundup of Outlook forecasts, leading investment firms offer their predictions for the year ahead.
A raft of divergent views on the prospects for economies and markets for 2020 are presented. However, amidst the range of opinions, some more consensual views are emerging, most noticeably relating to the potential risks that markets might face during the next year. High on the list of things to consider are 'climate change' risks in the lead-up to COP26, (the UK-hosted UN global climate change summit) and geopolitics, with the U.S presidential election and the Brexit trade deal outcomes featuring most prominently.
Global Investment Committee: 2020 outlook (Nuveen, Dec 2019)
Nuveen presents their outlook paper for 2020, which suggests that some of the more recent uncertainties and potential risks that have dogged the market over much of 2019 may be decreasing.
2020 Investment Outlook (Wellington Management, Dec 2019)
Wellington Management's investment teams come together to contribute their opinions and views on several of the major issues likely to affect global economic and investment markets in 2020.
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (Invesco)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Invesco provides long-term (10-year) estimates for the major asset classes. The assumptions are provided to assist in strategic asset allocation decisions, and this latest paper summarises notable quarter-on-quarter changes to those return estimates.
2020 Outlook: Coping with a changing market landscape (Franklin Templeton, Dec 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Franklin Templeton's report suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2020 but also caveats that investors need to be selective amid changing market scenarios.
2020 Economic Outlook: A Battle of Three Cycles (PineBridge, Nov 2019)
PineBridge's Chief Economist, Markus Schomer, outlines the three primary forces that they see impacting upon the global outlook, namely macro, monetary policy and the political cycle. How these three cycles interact will largely determine outcomes for 2020.
2020 Outlook: Expecting the Unexpected (UBS AM)
UBS Asset Management presents its comprehensive investment outlook for 2020 in this 20-page report.
2020 Investment Outlook: Be agile to cope with diverging scenarios (Amundi AM)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
In their 2020 outlook paper, Amundi AM suggests that after a bumper 2019, investors need to be alert and agile to cope with what they envisage could be potentially divergent investment scenarios in 2020.
Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade (PGIM Fixed Income, Nov 2019)
In this paper from PGIM Fixed Income, they look at historical global GDP growth and examine the potential that growth may be on a declining trajectory through the next decade.
New Year. New Decade. Outlook 2020 (AGF Investments)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada
AGF's Investment Management team focuses on the significant themes and events that are likely to influence markets over both the next year and potentially, also the next decade.
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations (Franklin Templeton)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Franklin Templeton provides their Long-Term Capital Market Expectations, usually regarded as having a 5-10 year investment time horizon.
CIO 2020 Outlook: Year of Change (LGIM, Dec 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada
In their 2020 Outlook paper, LGIM's investment professionals outline their collective thoughts and opinions across asset classes, highlighting some of the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
Looking into 2020 (Hermes IM, Dec 2019)
Hermes presents their 2020 Outlook paper, in which they highlight two significant risks for markets in 2020. Political risks are likely to be elevated, particularly in the U.K. (Brexit trade deal) and the USA (U.S. presidential election and U.S./China trade tensions). The second is climate change or reputational risk, where a range of companies and countries are likely to come under increasing pressure ahead of the COP 26 conference, which is due to be held in Glasgow in November.
Economic and market outlook for 2020: The new age of uncertainty (Vanguard)
Vanguard's market strategists expect global economic growth to be lower than previously expected in 2020; as a result, interest rates are likely to be 'lower for longer' too. Uncertainty remains as a result of an unpredictable policy environment, creating a fragile backdrop for markets.
Global Investment Forum: Key themes (BMO GAM, Dec 2019)
This paper from BMO GAM highlights the likely market drivers over the medium term. Key themes discussed include; the end of globalization, decarbonization, the likelihood of a U.S. recession, structural changes affecting the German auto sector, and the desire for fiscal policies to take up the running from ultra-accommodative monetary policies.
Outlook 2020: Ten Investing Themes for the Coming Year (Cambridge Associates, Dec 2019)
Cambridge Associates highlights ten investing themes for 2020, predicated on their base case of a moderate global growth outlook.
CIO View: Our 12-Month Economic & Market Outlook (DWS AM, Dec 2019)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom
DWS AM provides detailed economic, market outlook and asset return forecasts for 2020 in this 41-page report.
Global real estate 2020 outlook (Nuveen)
Nuveen outlines their views for the U.S. commercial real estate market in 2020, in which they believe that continuing U.S economic growth will continue to drive demand, but key risks remain.
