Global Strategy Outlook

The 2016 Investment Outlook – Our Selection of the Best Papers

The 2016 Investment Outlook – Our Selection of the Best Papers


Happy New Year! How will 2016 play out? Will the US fall back into recession in response to tighter monetary policy? Will wage pressures return and inflation re-awaken? Will bond yields rise with the reversal of QE? Can high PEs around the world be sustained?

Opinion is divided, but of course some arguments are more convincing than others. Below you will find a selection of reports from banks and asset managers setting out the 2016 investment outlook as they see it. The best reports (in our humble opinion) are at the top of the lists.

2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK                    

2016 Investment Outlook - Cycles Out of Sync (BlackRock)         

2016 Economic and Investment Outlook (Vanguard)

Investment Outlook 2016 - Late-cycle investing (Citibank)                            

FX Outlook for Q1 2016 (Brown Brothers Harriman)                         

UNDERSTANDING THE BUSINESS CYCLE                               

In Search of a Global Business Cycle (JP Morgan)                              

Dynamic Asset Allocation Through the Business Cycle (Oppenheimer)                   

LONG-TERM RETURN FORECASTS                            

Asset Class Returns Expected from 2016-2020 (Robeco)                     

2016 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan)                            


Future Equity Patterns and Baby Boomer Retirements (Society of Actuaries)                      

Structural Trends in Equity Market Valuation (Absolute Return Partners)                              

Why Global Demographics Matter – GDP, Debt, Inflation, Asset Prices (CFA)                      

Aging and its Surprising Effect on Inflation (Robeco)

Will interest rates be permanently lower? (San Francisco Fed)                   

Big Trends – Big Returns for Private Equity Investors (Adveq Management)                        

THE COMMODITY CYCLE                             

From boom to bust: Real commodity prices in the long run (a Typology) (NBER)               

Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century (UN)


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