Macro Pulse offers holistic global economic, geopolitical, and asset allocation views. We believe the next 3 months mark a major inflection point for global asset allocation. Will U.S. growth slow, allowing rates to decline and global growth to converge? Or will it re-firm, increasing the likelihood of a more pronounced…

With the economy and market sending inconsistent and often conflicting signals, we answer four key questions that are making investment decisions harder for market participants.

Do global credit conditions affect local credit and business cycles? Using a large cross-section of equity and corporate bond market returns around the world, the authors construct a novel global credit factor and a global risk factor that jointly price the international equity and bond cross-section. They uncover a global…

Over the last month, markets lacked a clear direction owing to US banking sector stress, uncertainty regarding the US debt ceiling, and signs of economic deceleration amid tightening of credit conditions. However, a key factor supported markets in the form of Q1 earnings, which came in better than expected in the US. The Fed…

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares…

In the wake of an unprecedented economic cycle, New York Life Investments have noticed an uptick in investor questions regarding direct loans. Supply chain imbalances, higher raw material costs, rising interest rates, labor shortages, and geopolitical risks each contribute to business risk – and therefore to credit risk.…

After a short, sharp recession (and more rapid rebound than we expected), the question is whether we are now at the start of a new global cycle? We believe so but expect it to be hesitant as rolling lockdowns are enforced and policy support is removed. At this stage of a new cycle we prefer cyclical assets and favour credit…

After a short, sharp recession (and more rapid rebound than we expected), the question is whether we are now at the start of a new global cycle? We believe so but expect it to be hesitant as rolling lockdowns are enforced and policy support is removed. At this stage of a new cycle we prefer cyclical assets and favour credit…

In a recent interview with Private Debt Investor, Jack Gay, Global Head of Debt discusses the current cycle for commercial real estate (CRE) debt and why he believes investors should look to allocate to CRE debt versus other areas of private credit.

Aggressive earnings projections have driven a significant divergence between adjusted EBITDA and actual cash earnings. Given the confluence of these factors, we believe that there is a reasonable probability of 2,000 downgrades and 200 issuer defaults during the 2023-2024 credit cycle.

For our final edition of 2023, we look back at ten charts that generated some of the most engagement with the Macrobond community. They start with a “nowcast” of the US economy that ultimately proved too bearish; move on to multiple tables and “heat maps” that compare many nations at once; and include a historic analysis of…

In the Global Financial Crisis the default rate neared 10%. There are two good reasons why we don’t expect 2023 to get close to that.

The proportion of asset classes that ended 2018 in the red was unprecedented, driven by two structural transitions—from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening, and from a globally-synchronized to a multi-cycle growth dynamic. In 2019, the Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) believes the global economy will come back…

SSGA offers their views for money and credit markets in 2020.