The march of demographics may be slow, but it is sure. And while the consequences of aging may seem far off into the future, they will be substantial. Unless we address them now, they will become much less manageable later.
Overview: The global capital markets are trading quietly ahead of the weekend. Equity markets are mostly narrowly mixed. Chinese shares extended their run, and the major benchmarks were up 4%+ on the week. Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India saw gains pared. European equities were edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is holding on to around a 2% gain for the week.…
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which…
The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble—typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth data aren’t showing much weakness. What’s the story?
Authored by Tom Luongo,
Back during the cryptocurrency mania of 2017 I explored Bitcoin as a foundational asset of a different monetary system. Built on blockchain I put together a crude crypto-version of Exter’s Pyramid to visualize this.
Today with Bitcoin soaring past $11,000 we may be entering a new mania phase but this time for completely different reasons than in 2017-18.
Authored by Yossef Bodansky via OilPrice.com,
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin’s early June 2019 summit in Moscow with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Pres. Xi Jinping seems likely to have a disproportionate influence on the next phases of the crises unfolding in the greater Middle East, and therefore on the future of the region.
The escalating confrontation between Iran and the US is both…
China will be launching a Nasdaq-style stock market for technology and research-driven companies to list and raise capital. While it has some detractors, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity believes this upcoming board is of strategic importance to China.
In lieu of his traditional morning commentary, and while preparing for the key meeting this week, Nomura's derivatives guru decided to pass-along a few charts "which capture the current market zeitgeist" along with the conclusion that the overall "output still speaks to the investors positioned for the end-of-cycle “Slow-flation” narrative: Long Global DM Bonds / Rates, Under-positioned for…
This week’s economic calendar is important, including reports on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators. Despite this, the punditry will be looking toward the week’s end and news from the G20 meetings. Naturally, we can expect some advance leaks.
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) offer a good guide for investing in companies making a positive impact on society. But where do you begin? Start by drilling deeply into the SDGs themselves to identify investible themes.
Why is free cash flow so important in common stock selection? First, you must think like the owner of an entire business. As a sole owner, the cash flow leftover after all obligations are paid is all yours. The more of it you get, the richer you are!
As you know, President Trump decided last Thursday not to go ahead with plans to bomb multiple Iranian military facilities, in response to Iran’s downing of an expensive US military drone last week. Mr. Trump initially received widespread, bipartisan praise for his last-minute decision not to bomb Iran. Even liberal news outlets praised him initially.
Senior Fed officials were divided on whether it will be appropriate to lower short-term interest rates by the end of the year, although even those expecting no change felt that the case for easier policy had strengthened.