The US-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday, but said output would rebound if their dueling tariffs were removed, reported Reuters. The IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook projections show 2019 GDP growth at 3%, down from […]
China's third-quarter economic growth slowed more than expected and to its weakest pace in almost three decades as the bruising U.S. trade war hit factory production, boosting the case for Beijing to roll out fresh support.
Analysts imagine a world where investment decisions can be entrusted to a software programme, but in reality, human judgment will always play a roleIn their new book The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry E Swedroe and Andrew L Berkin describe an investment environment populated by increasingly sophisticated analysts who rely on big data, powerful computers, and scholarly research. With all…
China's economic growth is expected to slow to a near 30-year low of 6.2% this year and cool further to 5.9% in 2020, a Reuters poll showed, underlining the stiff challenge faced by Beijing even as it steps up stimulus amid a bruising Sino-U.S. trade war.
The Fund’s latest forecast accepts that financing public debt is easier when borrowing is cheap•IMF warns there is ‘limited ammunition’ to fight recessionThe International Monetary Fund has been on quite a journey these past 10 years. From being a cheerleader for austerity, it is now telling countries that low interest and negligible inflationary pressure mean they can borrow and spend.Up to a…
Central Banks Are Out Of Ammo - UN Head Demands Immediate Fiscal Stimulus To Save World From Crisis
More and more global leaders sound the alarm that the world economy is headed for a difficult period in 2020.
Unlike several years ago, leaders across the world are now calling for immediate deployment of fiscal stimulus, but not monetary stimulus, a sign that central banks are out…
Reader Steven Kopits makes an astounding claim about macroeconomists (including me, and Jim Hamilton, et al.): …macroeconomists see demographics as outside their domain. Consequently, there’s a tendency to try to force the rules-of-thumb and economic models from the 1980s – 2000s on the current environment. That’s why John Williams says he’s surprised unemployment could go […]
40 Million Americans Already Don't Have Enough Food To Eat... And It's About To Get A Lot Worse
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
The things that I am going to share with you in this article are definitely very alarming. But if you live in a wealthy neighborhood and are always surrounded by other wealthy individuals that never have to worry about missing a…
U.S. stocks were flat on Wednesday as a raft of upbeat earnings reports underlined a solid start to third-quarter results, while concerns over an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and weak economic indicators lingered.
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2019.... The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 199 percent higher than the same week one year…
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.3 percent from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1 percent from September 2018.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $525.6 billion, a decrease of 0.3…
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 71 in October, up from 68 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits 20-Month HighBuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose three points to 71 in October, according to…
The CAR reported: Greater buying power amid historically low rates bolsters September home sales, C.A.R. reportsAmid the most favorable mortgage interest rates in nearly three years, California’s housing market recorded a third consecutive year-over-year sales increase as month-over-month sales remained essentially flat, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow…
Assuming the US House of Representatives votes to impeach President Donald Trump, the fact remains that there are far fewer votes in the Senate than will be needed to convict him and remove him from office. But the willingness of Congress – including the Senate – to continue tolerating his dangerous conduct is now truly in question.
Now that new home sales have reached a new cycle high (in June), I'd like to update a couple of graphs in a previous post (most of this from an earlier post).For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales. As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing…
It’s no longer unprecedented for a central bank to bring interest rates below zero, given that Swedish Riksbank and the European Central Bank have done so.
Drinking coffee is not necessarily a bad habit, but it can contribute to bad outcomes, including environmental degradation and labor exploitation. Fortunately, we have the knowledge and tools we need to clean up the industry.
In 2018, the government deficit and debt of both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 decreased in relative terms compared with 2017. In the euro area the government deficit to GDP ratio fell from 0.9% in 2017 to 0.5% in 2018, and in the EU28 from 1.0% to 0.7%. In the euro area the government debt to GDP ratio declined from 87.8% at the end of 2017 to 85.9% at the end of 2018, and in the EU28 from…