As Cliff Asness states, "Bonds are frickin' expensive!" Last week, the yield differential between the US 10-year treasury note and the 2-year treasury note inverted for the first time since 2007, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond reached an all-time low. As yields vary inversely to the prices of these securities, many US bonds are currently trading at expensive levels.…
When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, traders will comb through his remarks for clues on whether the U.S. central bank will deliver more rate cuts this year.
The economic calendar is very light with reports on only three days. Existing and new home sales reports could be interesting and there are many fans of the leading economic indicators. The combination of empty airtime and some Fed news is like an aphrodisiac to the pundits, all of whom are self-affirmed experts on the Fed.
Investors are suddenly much more concerned about the political transition in Argentina. The country’s stock of debt is large but not unmanageable, with a path to avoid default and to boost growth in sight.
Japanese government bond yields declined across the curve on Wednesday, along with U.S. Treasuries, after concerns about Italy's government and Britain's tumultuous exit from the European Union fuelled demand for safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve policymakers were deeply divided over whether to cut interest rates last month but were united in wanting to signal they were not on a preset path to more cuts, a message not likely to sit well with U.S. President Donald Trump.
It has been a thesis 30 years in the making, but with every passing day, SocGen's Albert Edwards - who first coined the term "Ice Age" to describe the state of the world in which every debt issue ends up with a negative yield as capital markets and economies collapse into a deflationary singularity - is that much closer to having the victory lap of a lifetime. Although, we doubt he is happy about…
The Federal Reserve has lost control of interest rates as evidenced by the federal funds rate trading higher than any part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday.
'Despite'? It's a feature, not a bug.
And if creditors aren't paying attention they are going to los A LOT of money.
Dividend recapitalizations have never been a popular moneymaking
technique for those outside of the private equity industry. For one,
they usually only benefit a select group of investors or shareholders.
And they typically damage a company's credit rating,
The pattern has been repeated. The Federal Reserve, to which he appointed the Chair, and several Governors does not move as quickly as the President wants on monetary policy. He responds by escalating the trade tension, delivering the independent central bank a fait accompli. Increasing the trade conflict succeeds where the unusual and repeated protestations of the dollar's strength…
Submitted by TheMarket.ch
Bill Smead, founder of Smead Capital Management, thinks that a generational change will give the US economy an unexpected boost. The renowned value investor spots opportunities in homebuilder stocks and blue chips like American Express, Disney and Home Depot.
* * *
Bill Smead, founder of Smead Capital Management
Millennials are perceived as the «lost generation».…
Hit that value earlier today, before dropping to 42% (recession in Trump’s first term, that is) Source: PredictIt, accessed 8/24/2019 2pm Pacific. Detail: Source: PredictIt, accessed 8/24/2019 2:15pm Pacific. My estimates of recession probability, using plain vanilla term spread model, and augmented with a credit spread, estimated over the 1986-2019M08 period (assuming the rest of […]